As the Phillies fall to 17-33, off to a historically bad start, one cannot help but question the future of this organization that was regarded as extremely bright a mere 3 months ago. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I have serious questions, concerns, and doubts about when the Phillies will once again become a contender.
The best organizations in baseball are built through their farm systems with homegrown talent. It's the safest and most efficient way to build a consistent contender. To stay successful and competitive, you need young cost-controlled talent waiting in the wings. It gives you options and flexibility across the board. When aging players hit the free agent market, it allows you to bring the next player up to replace them, and peace of mind that you can stay away from long-term contracts that move you closer to luxury tax territory and will likely be paying for past production. Teams with deep and talented farm systems never have to worry about being desperate. They don't have to stress about striking gold in free agency and having a 200 million dollar player buying their sales pitch over those of several other teams. They don't have to lose sleep over injuries, knowing that if a key player goes down, they can bring up talent from the minors to hold the fort until they heal up. And they also don't have to be concerned about being able to acquire a key talent at the trade deadline for a pennant run. As long as teams value your farm system highly, you will always be in the mix every July.
Unfortunately to have a great farm system, you need to both draft and develop players well. The fact is, the Phillies have not developed a star-caliber prospect since Cole Hamels in 2006. The list of failed prospects are numerous. Domonic Brown, Joe Savery, Phillippe Aumont, Freddy Galvis, J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies, Darin Ruf, Jesse Biddle... and on and on. Their draft history has not been good either, to put it lightly. Since 2006 some of their recent high draft picks include: Joe Savery, Anthony Hewitt, Larry Greene Jr., Jesse Biddle, and Cornelius Randolph. You can also include J.P. Crawford, who was regarded as the Phillies' best prospects for years now, until recently falling down the list with a horrendous start to his 2017 season. The promise to this farm system is quickly fading, as with it goes the promise of the Phillies turning things around any time soon.
The problem is the Phillies have no elite talent in their farm system. They don't have any Mike Trouts, Manny Machados, Bryce Harpers, Aaron Judges or Carlos Correas. They don't have any young talents to rejuvenate both the energy of the team, and the fan interest in the team. They have no one to hang their hat on as an organization. As it appears currently, the future of this organization almost rides solely on the outcome of the 2018-19 MLB free agent class. MacPhail and Klentak have been putting money away for years to give them a chance to offer Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and others mega contracts possibly upwards of 400 million dollars. I'm not so confident in this strategy. Why would any elite players want to join a floundering organization when they can go to another major market team like the Yankees or Red Sox also willing to break the bank, and most-assuredly be willing to go over the dreaded luxury tax for such talents. The Phillies' future will hinge on the shaky ground of the mind of a free agent. Their chance to add a star will rise or fall with a simple decision.
I'm sure they'll be able to lure some players with all the money they've stockpiled, but stars win in sports, and if they strike out in free agency like their 2017 lineup is currently striking out in May, then the turning point for this organization could be pushed back for another 3-5 years or more. See, that's why the Phillies are in a bad spot. They no longer control their own destiny by being unable to draft and develop talent. And until they figure out a way to do so, their prospects of contending will be pushed back indefinitely. The Phillies would have never won a World Series if they didn't draft and develop Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley. If they don't get back to that level of drafting and developing, they won't any time soon.
I don't know how to fix it. I wish I did. I hate to use this term, but the Phillies need a culture change. Right now they mimic the tendencies of bad organizations. Even when the logic is sound, and they mean well, they still find a way to screw up. Nothing in the organization is going well right now. Usually, to turn it around it takes a major front office shakeup. Would Middleton be willing to pull the plug on MacPhail and/or Klentak? I doubt it. But they need to figure out something, because until then, and only then, the entire fate of the franchise will be riding on something totally out of their hands. Scary stuff.
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