On May 16th, the Sixers missed out on the grand prize of the 2017 NBA Lottery, by landing the #1 overall pick and being in the position to draft Washington's Markelle Fultz. Fultz would have been the absolute perfect fit for the Sixers. He's a great compliment skill-wise to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, and he would have conceivably given them their 3rd superstar-caliber prospect to round out their own young 'Big 3' and put the finishing touches on The Process. Alas, that did not happen, and the Sixers find themselves sitting at #3 overall, and with a plethora of options. I'll spend the rest of this post breaking down how I feel about where they are, what options they have, and where they should go from here.
To start, I think this draft class is overrated. I've heard numerous respected basketball people and pundits declare this class as the best draft class since LeBron, Wade, Melo, and Bosh in the 2003 NBA Draft. I could not disagree more. I don't even think this draft class is as good as the Wiggins, Parker, Embiid draft class of 2014. I feel this class has a lot of good talent, but not a lot of superstar talent. Markelle Fultz is the only player in this class that I feel relatively strongly about becoming that level of special. Besides him, I see a lot of talented players who have major flaws and questionable upside.
Positionally, this draft fits the Sixers needs very well. It is loaded with guards and wing players in the top 10. Unfortunately, aside from Markelle Fultz(who is likely out of reach) and Malik Monk, most of these players lack the skill the Sixers need most: shooting. Whether it be Lonzo Ball's form; Josh Jackson's hitch in his jumper; Tatum, Isaac, or Smith Jr's shooting percentage; there are questions with all of their shooting abilities. Granted, some more than others, but there are few "sure-things" as shooters in the top of this draft. This puts the Sixers in a precarious position, because they have stressed pushing more toward 'need' in current and future drafts, so ideally they'd like to come out of that 3rd pick with a player who fits their needs both positionally and in terms of skill, but that is unlikely to be the case. Do you target the player who best fills a need? Do you simply take the highest rated player even if he lacks a skill that best fits your team? The Sixers have a lot of things to figure out before June 22nd. The good news for Bryan Colangelo is thanks to the assets Sam Hinkie left behind, he has a lot of options available to him.
With there being no perfect fit at 3, the Sixers could just bite the bullet on Josh Jackson's jumper and hope they can fix the mechanics in his shot, paving the way for him to become the star-caliber scoring wing they so desperately covet. This staff has done wonders to develop the likes of TJ McConnell, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, among others. If they can even get Josh Jackson's 3 pointer to league average, he'd be well worth the 3rd overall selection. I think the Sixers are going to put more of an emphasis on workouts this year than they have recently and will be monitoring their shooting drills extra closely this year. I'll predict right now that regardless of his he performs in his other areas, if Josh Jackson shoots terribly in his workout with the Sixers, I don't think they are going to draft him. I'm basing that off of absolutely nothing other than a gut feeling, but with there being no far and away clear #3 pick, I can't see them picking a guy who bombed his shooting drills in his workout considering how badly this team needs shooting.
If I'm the Sixers I think the best option is a trade. So, I'll break down my thoughts on each scenario:
OPTION #1: TRADING UP
The Sixers can't afford to screw this pick up. They have to come out of draft night with a really good player. To me, there is just too much of a risk to stay at 3 and take a player who has glaring flaws. The first thing I would do would be to call Ainge in Boston and see what it would take to get up to #1 and draft Markelle Fultz. The trade scenario batted around this week is the 3rd pick, the 2018 Lakers pick, and Dario Saric for Fultz. I'd consider it. I love Dario Saric, but you can find 6th men in future. Especially if Fultz forms a star trio with Simmons and Embiid, the Sixers will become an attractive destination for those types. Knowing Ainge, he will probably ask for more than that, but that deal is where I'd draw the line in the sand. Fultz is really good, but not worth depleting your assets for.
OPTION #2: TRADING THE PICK FOR AN ESTABLISHED STAR
Next, I would call around the league and try to land a star-level guard or wing talent in a package with the #3 pick. Would the Bulls part with Jimmy Butler? Would the Pacers part with Paul George? If so, would he agree to a contract extension with the Sixers? Highly highly doubtful, but can't hurt to make the call.
OPTION #3: TRADING DOWN(BUT NOT TOO FAR)
Lastly, I'd try to trade down. Would Sacramento offer #5 and #10 for the 3rd pick? Would a team like Orlando or the Knicks offer their picks and a future unprotected 1st rounder to jump to #3? They would likely only bite if there was a player they absolutely loved at #3. If the picks are good enough, I'll take the extra picks in a move-down if there is no clear consensus at 3rd overall. With the Sacramento deal, you still get a player at 5 who is in the same tier as the player you'd get at 3, but you increase your chances of coming out of the draft with a gem by getting another pick in the top 10. In the other scenario, you drop down a few spots, still likely get a player in the same tier, while bolstering flexibility for either future trades or drafts.
Usually by draft night, I'm 100% settled on the player I want. I have a feeling this year, draft night will begin and I'll still not be sold on any one player at 3. I just hope Bryan Colangelo is creative enough to explore every available option, because coming out of that draft with a 3rd star-level player will likely and mercifully put The Process to bed for good so we can start some serious winning.
Ah, who am I kidding The Process will never die.
MY 2017 SIXERS BIG BOARD AS OF 5/24/17
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Josh Jackson
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
4. Jayson Tatum
5. Jonathan Isaac
6. Lonzo Ball
7. Malik Monk
8. De'Aaron Fox
9. Frank Ntilikina
10. Justin Jackson
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