Heading into December 4th's game against the Phoenix Suns, the 13-9 Sixers appeared destined to be a top 5 seeded playoff team with a win mark in the high 40's. Unfortunately, sometimes appearances can be deceiving. They have some promising things under their belt. They've beaten some of the NBA's best teams--some of those wins coming on the road. Simmons looks like the clear Rookie of the Year and Embiid has progressively improving every week, picking up where he left off last season. Even TJ McConnell has even developed into a really valuable piece, commanding the offense, taking care of the ball, playing pesky defense, and improving his 3 point shot. However, as we've seen over the past couple weeks, this team has flaws. Fatal ones.
They are the NBA's worst team in turnovers, they are a poor free throw shooting team, they blow leads seemingly almost every game, they regularly go through long stretches where they can't score, and they have one of the NBA's worst benches. Additionally, for a team that relies so much on the 3 ball with their 'pace and space' style of play, they are a below average 3 point shooting team sans two players in Robert Covington and JJ Redick. They put tons of pressure every night on two players to majorly produce from beyond the arc, as regulars like TLC, Saric, and Anderson(when he plays) are not consistently reliable from downtown and they generally don't have a lot of shooters on the roster to begin with.
Covington started off the season among the tops in the NBA in 3 point shooting percentage, and as we've seen lately, it was not sustainable. Covington is a good 3 point shooter, not a great one. I suspect he'll finish the season somewhere around 38%. When he and/or Redick struggle shooting the ball, the Sixers really struggle to score consistently since they rely so much from distance. That leaves the young Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid up to put the team on their backs and carry them night after night; a tall task for the young duo, as immensely talented as they are.
As teams continue to play the Sixers, coaches will learn how to match up against them, and the longer the grind of the season continues, their flaws will become more and more evident, and the lack of a bench is going to hurt them. Teams without quality depth rely so much on their starters and it wears them down over the course of a long season. Flaws always bubble up to the surface over the long haul for any team, it's the nature of sports. And don't even get me started on injuries. This team can ill-afford to lose TJ McConnell for a long stretch right now, let alone Embiid or Simmons. One injury to one of their best players and they're in serious trouble very quickly.
I got caught up in the Sixers excitement just like anyone else. They certainly are not a bad team by any means, and I think it goes without saying this is just the first step in many years of great basketball to come. But for this season? I'm sorry, a top 5 seed and more than 45 wins is unrealistic. They simply aren't good enough. I hope I'm wrong, but I think this is a borderline playoff team, a 7th seed at best, and that's not a bad thing. It's just a little disappointing when one is guilty is getting caught up in the hype.
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