I'm an avid fan of science. Specifically physics. I believe that our universe was created by a series of coincidences and blind chance. That in the formation of our universe, when matter and anti-matter were cancelling each other out, just enough matter somehow luckily made it through unscathed, which allowed the existence of all matter in our amazing universe that we have today. I believe that in this endless star ocean, that things tend to even out... that the scales tend to balance. Science and nature seem to always find a way to even things out and provide symmetry. Mankind wouldn't have come to exist without it. This very principle trickles down to this incredibly insignificant thing that we all seem to love called sports. The stars had to align so to speak, for the Sixers to have any shot at winding up with Markelle Fultz to complete their trio of young superstar prospects. Let's take a look at all the things that had to go right for the Sixers to end up with him.
The Lakers pick had to not convey to the Sixers for 3 straight years
The famous Lakers pick that the Sixers acquired in the Michael Carter Williams trade, was top 5 protected in 2015, top 3 protected in 2016, and top 3 protected in 2017. For the Sixers to have been able to trade up to #1 and take Fultz, the pick needed to not convey in at least the first two years, and very likely the third, because Boston right now seems to covet future assets a great deal. The chances of the Lakers pick not conveying all those times is somewhere around 21%. It was highly unlikely that in 3 separate chances, the pick wouldn't convey to the Sixers once. Oh, and maybe a little "convincing" to the commissioner from Magic Johnson when he apparently guaranteed to head coach Luke Walton that they'd be keeping the pick. If the pick conveyed in 2015, the Sixers would have likely ended up with Emmanuel Mudiay, likely Kris Dunn if it conveyed in 2016, and if it conveyed this year who the hell knows. Mudiay and Dunn are both point guards, and with either of them on the roster, who knows if they even consider the pursuit of Markelle Fultz a priority.
The picks needed to swap
The Kings had a 10% chance at jumping into the top 3. It happened. Otherwise, the Sixers would have been left with just the #5 overall pick, making the price to jump up to #1 even steeper, and less likely Boston would even consider it. Praise Hinkie.
Boston had to get the #1 overall pick
The Celtics are one of the few teams(if any) that would have traded out of the top spot. Historically, it rarely happens in the NBA, and it takes a team that is obsessed with kicking the can down the road and amassing future assets to strike a deal. The Celtics happened to be that team, and sure, they had the best odds at getting the pick, but it was still an only 25% chance, and after a decade of the team with the best odds not getting the #1 pick, this was the 3rd year in a row it happened. Hey, Mr. Universe, are you trying to balance things out again???
The Kings needed to trade DeMarcus Cousins
Let's face it, the Kings wouldn't have tumbled down the standings after actually flirting with the 8th seed in the playoffs for a while there, had they not traded Cousins. They got rid of their superstar and the team fell apart. It pushed the Kings down the standings right into that sweet #8 spot that happened to be the perfect place to jump into the top 3, allowing the trade to happen.
The Lakers needed to go on a late-season winning streak
The Lakers were an abysmal team all season, especially after they dealt Lou Williams right before the trade deadline. They were nip/tuck with the Suns all season long for that #2 spot. The Lakers clinched the 3rd spot in the lottery by going on an unlikely 4 game winning streak, WHILE PLAYING RON ARTEST IN THE 4TH QUARTER TO TANK no less, and one of those wins was a buzzer beater on a broken play by De'Angelo Russell. If the Lakers had finished in the #2 spot, they would have fallen to #4(instead the Suns did) and the Sixers would have received the pick. If this happens, who knows if Boston is as interested in that pick in trading down from #1.
The Kings needed to lose the final game and the Mavs needed to win it
The Kings and Mavs were tied with the same records headed into the final game of the season. The Kings ended up losing their game and the Mavs ended up winning it. By the way, as badly as the Lakers tanked at the end of the season, no one tanked as hardcore as Mark Cuban and the Mavs, who basically played their bench for the entire 2nd half of each game in the final 2-3 weeks of the season. However, as luck would have it, the Mavs and their bench win on the road in Memphis-who is a playoff team, and the Kings lost. Had the results been reversed, the Mavs would have finished 8th, the Kings 9th, and the Mavs would have jumped into the top 3. That means no swap and no #1 pick for the Sixers.
The universe needed to do its thing
When you break it all down, you see how amazing it is that the Sixers are sitting here today with Markelle Fultz, who is the perfect fit next to Embiid and Simmons, and the high-level scoring guard this team has needed since Allen Iverson was traded. In a city that seems to pout and moan about our luck all the time, Philadelphia got extremely lucky here, people. Remember, it seems just like yesterday where grumpy fans and radio hosts were whining about the Lakers pick not conveying after every lottery. "We're never gonna get the pick! Who knows if we even get a better player than MCW!" Turns out, the pick not conveying ended up being a blessing in disguise. What seemed unlucky ended up turning into one of the luckiest things that happened to the franchise in 30 years.
We're also fortunate that in this specific draft, when the assets were ripe for trading, that a player like Fultz was available. You never know what the strengths and weaknesses of each draft will be, and for this draft to have a guard, which was our biggest need, sitting at the top made is very fortunate. And to take it one step further, the Sixers were very lucky to get top 3 picks for 4 straight years, and the Sixers got the #1 rated player in 3 of them. All of which were very strong drafts. If their tanking had happened in another set of years, they may not have the franchise-altering talents that they have right now. For all the criticisms about how tanking "doesn't guarantee anything!" the Sixers came out FAR AND AWAY on the lucky end of the spectrum. Almost too lucky. Did Harris sell his soul like Brad Lidge did in 2008 for a perfect season? Josh Harris has three #1 picks in the last calendar year between the Sixers and Devils(speaking of selling your soul).
Our fan base suffered through a lot. Four years of horrible basketball, and in the one season that showed promise, Ben Simmons got hurt on the final play of the final practice before the season kicked off. Joel Embiid was dominating and creating a buzz in the city we haven't had since Allen Iverson, and he comes down from a dunk, his knee buckles, and his season ended. Jerryd Bayless hurt his wrist in camp and missed practically the entire season. Robert Covington hurt his knee. Oh, and don't forget we suffered through Jahlil Okafor. I said all year long that the sports gods owe us. No one deserved to suffer that badly, we needed to be rewarded with the #1 pick. And while we didn't get #1 in the lottery, a million things had to go right for the Sixers to trade up and take Fultz, and by Zeus they did. Our luck was balanced. The universe had spoken. Symmetry... just like we deserved.
Enjoy, Philadelphia. This is our time.
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