As the Phillies fall to 17-33, off to a historically bad start, one cannot help but question the future of this organization that was regarded as extremely bright a mere 3 months ago. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I have serious questions, concerns, and doubts about when the Phillies will once again become a contender.
The best organizations in baseball are built through their farm systems with homegrown talent. It's the safest and most efficient way to build a consistent contender. To stay successful and competitive, you need young cost-controlled talent waiting in the wings. It gives you options and flexibility across the board. When aging players hit the free agent market, it allows you to bring the next player up to replace them, and peace of mind that you can stay away from long-term contracts that move you closer to luxury tax territory and will likely be paying for past production. Teams with deep and talented farm systems never have to worry about being desperate. They don't have to stress about striking gold in free agency and having a 200 million dollar player buying their sales pitch over those of several other teams. They don't have to lose sleep over injuries, knowing that if a key player goes down, they can bring up talent from the minors to hold the fort until they heal up. And they also don't have to be concerned about being able to acquire a key talent at the trade deadline for a pennant run. As long as teams value your farm system highly, you will always be in the mix every July.
Unfortunately to have a great farm system, you need to both draft and develop players well. The fact is, the Phillies have not developed a star-caliber prospect since Cole Hamels in 2006. The list of failed prospects are numerous. Domonic Brown, Joe Savery, Phillippe Aumont, Freddy Galvis, J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies, Darin Ruf, Jesse Biddle... and on and on. Their draft history has not been good either, to put it lightly. Since 2006 some of their recent high draft picks include: Joe Savery, Anthony Hewitt, Larry Greene Jr., Jesse Biddle, and Cornelius Randolph. You can also include J.P. Crawford, who was regarded as the Phillies' best prospects for years now, until recently falling down the list with a horrendous start to his 2017 season. The promise to this farm system is quickly fading, as with it goes the promise of the Phillies turning things around any time soon.
The problem is the Phillies have no elite talent in their farm system. They don't have any Mike Trouts, Manny Machados, Bryce Harpers, Aaron Judges or Carlos Correas. They don't have any young talents to rejuvenate both the energy of the team, and the fan interest in the team. They have no one to hang their hat on as an organization. As it appears currently, the future of this organization almost rides solely on the outcome of the 2018-19 MLB free agent class. MacPhail and Klentak have been putting money away for years to give them a chance to offer Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and others mega contracts possibly upwards of 400 million dollars. I'm not so confident in this strategy. Why would any elite players want to join a floundering organization when they can go to another major market team like the Yankees or Red Sox also willing to break the bank, and most-assuredly be willing to go over the dreaded luxury tax for such talents. The Phillies' future will hinge on the shaky ground of the mind of a free agent. Their chance to add a star will rise or fall with a simple decision.
I'm sure they'll be able to lure some players with all the money they've stockpiled, but stars win in sports, and if they strike out in free agency like their 2017 lineup is currently striking out in May, then the turning point for this organization could be pushed back for another 3-5 years or more. See, that's why the Phillies are in a bad spot. They no longer control their own destiny by being unable to draft and develop talent. And until they figure out a way to do so, their prospects of contending will be pushed back indefinitely. The Phillies would have never won a World Series if they didn't draft and develop Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley. If they don't get back to that level of drafting and developing, they won't any time soon.
I don't know how to fix it. I wish I did. I hate to use this term, but the Phillies need a culture change. Right now they mimic the tendencies of bad organizations. Even when the logic is sound, and they mean well, they still find a way to screw up. Nothing in the organization is going well right now. Usually, to turn it around it takes a major front office shakeup. Would Middleton be willing to pull the plug on MacPhail and/or Klentak? I doubt it. But they need to figure out something, because until then, and only then, the entire fate of the franchise will be riding on something totally out of their hands. Scary stuff.
Tuesday, May 30, 2017
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Sixers NBA Draft musings and thoughts for May
On May 16th, the Sixers missed out on the grand prize of the 2017 NBA Lottery, by landing the #1 overall pick and being in the position to draft Washington's Markelle Fultz. Fultz would have been the absolute perfect fit for the Sixers. He's a great compliment skill-wise to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, and he would have conceivably given them their 3rd superstar-caliber prospect to round out their own young 'Big 3' and put the finishing touches on The Process. Alas, that did not happen, and the Sixers find themselves sitting at #3 overall, and with a plethora of options. I'll spend the rest of this post breaking down how I feel about where they are, what options they have, and where they should go from here.
To start, I think this draft class is overrated. I've heard numerous respected basketball people and pundits declare this class as the best draft class since LeBron, Wade, Melo, and Bosh in the 2003 NBA Draft. I could not disagree more. I don't even think this draft class is as good as the Wiggins, Parker, Embiid draft class of 2014. I feel this class has a lot of good talent, but not a lot of superstar talent. Markelle Fultz is the only player in this class that I feel relatively strongly about becoming that level of special. Besides him, I see a lot of talented players who have major flaws and questionable upside.
Positionally, this draft fits the Sixers needs very well. It is loaded with guards and wing players in the top 10. Unfortunately, aside from Markelle Fultz(who is likely out of reach) and Malik Monk, most of these players lack the skill the Sixers need most: shooting. Whether it be Lonzo Ball's form; Josh Jackson's hitch in his jumper; Tatum, Isaac, or Smith Jr's shooting percentage; there are questions with all of their shooting abilities. Granted, some more than others, but there are few "sure-things" as shooters in the top of this draft. This puts the Sixers in a precarious position, because they have stressed pushing more toward 'need' in current and future drafts, so ideally they'd like to come out of that 3rd pick with a player who fits their needs both positionally and in terms of skill, but that is unlikely to be the case. Do you target the player who best fills a need? Do you simply take the highest rated player even if he lacks a skill that best fits your team? The Sixers have a lot of things to figure out before June 22nd. The good news for Bryan Colangelo is thanks to the assets Sam Hinkie left behind, he has a lot of options available to him.
With there being no perfect fit at 3, the Sixers could just bite the bullet on Josh Jackson's jumper and hope they can fix the mechanics in his shot, paving the way for him to become the star-caliber scoring wing they so desperately covet. This staff has done wonders to develop the likes of TJ McConnell, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, among others. If they can even get Josh Jackson's 3 pointer to league average, he'd be well worth the 3rd overall selection. I think the Sixers are going to put more of an emphasis on workouts this year than they have recently and will be monitoring their shooting drills extra closely this year. I'll predict right now that regardless of his he performs in his other areas, if Josh Jackson shoots terribly in his workout with the Sixers, I don't think they are going to draft him. I'm basing that off of absolutely nothing other than a gut feeling, but with there being no far and away clear #3 pick, I can't see them picking a guy who bombed his shooting drills in his workout considering how badly this team needs shooting.
If I'm the Sixers I think the best option is a trade. So, I'll break down my thoughts on each scenario:
OPTION #1: TRADING UP
The Sixers can't afford to screw this pick up. They have to come out of draft night with a really good player. To me, there is just too much of a risk to stay at 3 and take a player who has glaring flaws. The first thing I would do would be to call Ainge in Boston and see what it would take to get up to #1 and draft Markelle Fultz. The trade scenario batted around this week is the 3rd pick, the 2018 Lakers pick, and Dario Saric for Fultz. I'd consider it. I love Dario Saric, but you can find 6th men in future. Especially if Fultz forms a star trio with Simmons and Embiid, the Sixers will become an attractive destination for those types. Knowing Ainge, he will probably ask for more than that, but that deal is where I'd draw the line in the sand. Fultz is really good, but not worth depleting your assets for.
OPTION #2: TRADING THE PICK FOR AN ESTABLISHED STAR
Next, I would call around the league and try to land a star-level guard or wing talent in a package with the #3 pick. Would the Bulls part with Jimmy Butler? Would the Pacers part with Paul George? If so, would he agree to a contract extension with the Sixers? Highly highly doubtful, but can't hurt to make the call.
OPTION #3: TRADING DOWN(BUT NOT TOO FAR)
Lastly, I'd try to trade down. Would Sacramento offer #5 and #10 for the 3rd pick? Would a team like Orlando or the Knicks offer their picks and a future unprotected 1st rounder to jump to #3? They would likely only bite if there was a player they absolutely loved at #3. If the picks are good enough, I'll take the extra picks in a move-down if there is no clear consensus at 3rd overall. With the Sacramento deal, you still get a player at 5 who is in the same tier as the player you'd get at 3, but you increase your chances of coming out of the draft with a gem by getting another pick in the top 10. In the other scenario, you drop down a few spots, still likely get a player in the same tier, while bolstering flexibility for either future trades or drafts.
Usually by draft night, I'm 100% settled on the player I want. I have a feeling this year, draft night will begin and I'll still not be sold on any one player at 3. I just hope Bryan Colangelo is creative enough to explore every available option, because coming out of that draft with a 3rd star-level player will likely and mercifully put The Process to bed for good so we can start some serious winning.
Ah, who am I kidding The Process will never die.
MY 2017 SIXERS BIG BOARD AS OF 5/24/17
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Josh Jackson
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
4. Jayson Tatum
5. Jonathan Isaac
6. Lonzo Ball
7. Malik Monk
8. De'Aaron Fox
9. Frank Ntilikina
10. Justin Jackson
To start, I think this draft class is overrated. I've heard numerous respected basketball people and pundits declare this class as the best draft class since LeBron, Wade, Melo, and Bosh in the 2003 NBA Draft. I could not disagree more. I don't even think this draft class is as good as the Wiggins, Parker, Embiid draft class of 2014. I feel this class has a lot of good talent, but not a lot of superstar talent. Markelle Fultz is the only player in this class that I feel relatively strongly about becoming that level of special. Besides him, I see a lot of talented players who have major flaws and questionable upside.
Positionally, this draft fits the Sixers needs very well. It is loaded with guards and wing players in the top 10. Unfortunately, aside from Markelle Fultz(who is likely out of reach) and Malik Monk, most of these players lack the skill the Sixers need most: shooting. Whether it be Lonzo Ball's form; Josh Jackson's hitch in his jumper; Tatum, Isaac, or Smith Jr's shooting percentage; there are questions with all of their shooting abilities. Granted, some more than others, but there are few "sure-things" as shooters in the top of this draft. This puts the Sixers in a precarious position, because they have stressed pushing more toward 'need' in current and future drafts, so ideally they'd like to come out of that 3rd pick with a player who fits their needs both positionally and in terms of skill, but that is unlikely to be the case. Do you target the player who best fills a need? Do you simply take the highest rated player even if he lacks a skill that best fits your team? The Sixers have a lot of things to figure out before June 22nd. The good news for Bryan Colangelo is thanks to the assets Sam Hinkie left behind, he has a lot of options available to him.
With there being no perfect fit at 3, the Sixers could just bite the bullet on Josh Jackson's jumper and hope they can fix the mechanics in his shot, paving the way for him to become the star-caliber scoring wing they so desperately covet. This staff has done wonders to develop the likes of TJ McConnell, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, among others. If they can even get Josh Jackson's 3 pointer to league average, he'd be well worth the 3rd overall selection. I think the Sixers are going to put more of an emphasis on workouts this year than they have recently and will be monitoring their shooting drills extra closely this year. I'll predict right now that regardless of his he performs in his other areas, if Josh Jackson shoots terribly in his workout with the Sixers, I don't think they are going to draft him. I'm basing that off of absolutely nothing other than a gut feeling, but with there being no far and away clear #3 pick, I can't see them picking a guy who bombed his shooting drills in his workout considering how badly this team needs shooting.
If I'm the Sixers I think the best option is a trade. So, I'll break down my thoughts on each scenario:
OPTION #1: TRADING UP
The Sixers can't afford to screw this pick up. They have to come out of draft night with a really good player. To me, there is just too much of a risk to stay at 3 and take a player who has glaring flaws. The first thing I would do would be to call Ainge in Boston and see what it would take to get up to #1 and draft Markelle Fultz. The trade scenario batted around this week is the 3rd pick, the 2018 Lakers pick, and Dario Saric for Fultz. I'd consider it. I love Dario Saric, but you can find 6th men in future. Especially if Fultz forms a star trio with Simmons and Embiid, the Sixers will become an attractive destination for those types. Knowing Ainge, he will probably ask for more than that, but that deal is where I'd draw the line in the sand. Fultz is really good, but not worth depleting your assets for.
OPTION #2: TRADING THE PICK FOR AN ESTABLISHED STAR
Next, I would call around the league and try to land a star-level guard or wing talent in a package with the #3 pick. Would the Bulls part with Jimmy Butler? Would the Pacers part with Paul George? If so, would he agree to a contract extension with the Sixers? Highly highly doubtful, but can't hurt to make the call.
OPTION #3: TRADING DOWN(BUT NOT TOO FAR)
Lastly, I'd try to trade down. Would Sacramento offer #5 and #10 for the 3rd pick? Would a team like Orlando or the Knicks offer their picks and a future unprotected 1st rounder to jump to #3? They would likely only bite if there was a player they absolutely loved at #3. If the picks are good enough, I'll take the extra picks in a move-down if there is no clear consensus at 3rd overall. With the Sacramento deal, you still get a player at 5 who is in the same tier as the player you'd get at 3, but you increase your chances of coming out of the draft with a gem by getting another pick in the top 10. In the other scenario, you drop down a few spots, still likely get a player in the same tier, while bolstering flexibility for either future trades or drafts.
Usually by draft night, I'm 100% settled on the player I want. I have a feeling this year, draft night will begin and I'll still not be sold on any one player at 3. I just hope Bryan Colangelo is creative enough to explore every available option, because coming out of that draft with a 3rd star-level player will likely and mercifully put The Process to bed for good so we can start some serious winning.
Ah, who am I kidding The Process will never die.
MY 2017 SIXERS BIG BOARD AS OF 5/24/17
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Josh Jackson
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
4. Jayson Tatum
5. Jonathan Isaac
6. Lonzo Ball
7. Malik Monk
8. De'Aaron Fox
9. Frank Ntilikina
10. Justin Jackson
Monday, May 15, 2017
Philadelphia sports has it going on, if only the fans would open their eyes to see it
If there's one thing I think all human being on the planet earth can agree with, it's that incessant whining is never not annoying. Even if someone has something legitimate to bitch about, we still don't like to hear them go on and on about it every single day for hours on end. In comes Philly sports fans circa 2017:
"When will we ever win again in Philadelphia???"
"Philly sports hasn't won a playoff round since 2012!"
"Philly sports are so bad right now!"
You hear these sentiments peppered about the Philadelphia sports airwaves and streets almost everyday. There is a film of negativity and cynicism that has coated the populace, and is suffocating our fans to the point where some reek of complete and utter desperation. It's almost like the fans have dug themselves into a hole of misery so deep, that they aren't even considering the option of trying to find a way out. Like a death row inmate in solitary confinement who has been resigned to his fate.
It's a shame our city has been overtaken by this, because there is a lot of greatness in Philadelphia right now, and if people would just muster up the strength to search for it, you'd find it's staring you right in the face. I can't remember the last time I was this excited to be a Philadelphia sports fan. Excitement is oozing out of my pores for what is to come. I have news for you, 90% of sports cities in this country would kill to have what we have right now. Philadelphia has 3 players in this city who have the kind of talent and ability to where at some point in their careers, they could be considered the best players in their entire sports. They are Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Carson Wentz.
Joel Embiid had a historic rookie campaign(albeit for only 31 games) but even so, he put up numbers that most rookies could only dream of. Historic numbers rivaling some of the NBA's all-time greats, while on a minutes restriction. It would not be ridiculous to argue that he is one of the 3 most talented big men who has ever graced the NBA. Ben Simmons is a unique talent. He handles the basketball like a shooting guard, he passes like a point guard, and he has the body of a power forward. Oh, and has the athleticism and leaping ability to compare to some of the league's best. Carson Wentz, based on certain statistical categories had one of the best rookie QB seasons in NFL history. He was surrounded by minimal talent and was impressive all the way through, especially for a guy coming out of D1AA. If not for all eyes on Dak Prescott in Dallas, who was in a much more favorable situation, more eyes would have been all over Carson Wentz's phemonal rookie season. You can make a case with all things considered, it was the best in Eagles franchise history. And to throw one more name into the mix, let's not forget Ivan Provorov, who quickly adapted to the NHL as one of the game's most promising defensemen, and has potential to be one of the very best in the league for a long time to come. The fact is, not many cities in this country have the type of elite talent waiting in the wings that our city has.
With all 4 franchises on the right track, we are set up for greatness with all of our teams for years to come. On top of it, they've been fun and competitive each night for well over a year now. The time for misery is over.
"B...b...but Embiid gets hurt!"
"B...b...but Ben Simmons' jump shot!"
"B...b...but Carson Wentz sails some passes!"
Shhhhhhhhh.
You're doing it again, Philadelphia. Harping on the negative. You can do the same thing with any rookie. I could have criticized Ryan Howard's weight, or mediocre defense at first base. I could have harped on Cole Hamels coming into the league without a monster secondary pitch after his changeup. I could have brought up Allen Iverson's porous defense over and over again. Philadelphia didn't do any of that. This city used to focus on the positives, not the negatives. I don't know what has made us into this. This city has had tough stretches before. The 70's, the early 90's. We feel defeated, and that is a shame, because you are going to miss some great stuff going on in this city, stuff that is already going on as I type this.
Philadelphia boasts to be "all about championships." Remember all the times people spoke about how getting to NFC Championship games weren't good enough? "All I want is a Superbowl!" Remember when the Sixers couldn't sell out playoff games of teams led by Andre Iguodala? "We know they aren't winning a championship anyway, so why pay money?" Now, the city's sports teams have finally collectively embraced the desire to build teams that can win titles, and we have turned our backs on them. For shame. Building championship teams takes time. You can't just snap your fingers and skip over the rebuilding process. That isn't how it works. Wouldn't you love to just start a business and skip to the part where you become a billionaire? It doesn't work that way. Building a corporate empire takes time. You build up your company bit by bit. That is how things work in the real world.
So, I have news for you Philadelphia. It's time to shake that "woe is me" attitude, and start embracing the greatness that Philly sports is evolving into. If not, then when we start averaging two parades a year for the next decade, then do all of us grateful fans a favor and stay home. Sit on your couch and whine about how "The Eagles only won the Superbowl by a field goal!" or "The Sixers only won the NBA Finals in 5 games and couldn't pull off the sweep!" Keep your whiny, miserable asses away from the rest of us, and don't bring us down.
"When will we ever win again in Philadelphia???"
"Philly sports hasn't won a playoff round since 2012!"
"Philly sports are so bad right now!"
You hear these sentiments peppered about the Philadelphia sports airwaves and streets almost everyday. There is a film of negativity and cynicism that has coated the populace, and is suffocating our fans to the point where some reek of complete and utter desperation. It's almost like the fans have dug themselves into a hole of misery so deep, that they aren't even considering the option of trying to find a way out. Like a death row inmate in solitary confinement who has been resigned to his fate.
It's a shame our city has been overtaken by this, because there is a lot of greatness in Philadelphia right now, and if people would just muster up the strength to search for it, you'd find it's staring you right in the face. I can't remember the last time I was this excited to be a Philadelphia sports fan. Excitement is oozing out of my pores for what is to come. I have news for you, 90% of sports cities in this country would kill to have what we have right now. Philadelphia has 3 players in this city who have the kind of talent and ability to where at some point in their careers, they could be considered the best players in their entire sports. They are Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Carson Wentz.
Joel Embiid had a historic rookie campaign(albeit for only 31 games) but even so, he put up numbers that most rookies could only dream of. Historic numbers rivaling some of the NBA's all-time greats, while on a minutes restriction. It would not be ridiculous to argue that he is one of the 3 most talented big men who has ever graced the NBA. Ben Simmons is a unique talent. He handles the basketball like a shooting guard, he passes like a point guard, and he has the body of a power forward. Oh, and has the athleticism and leaping ability to compare to some of the league's best. Carson Wentz, based on certain statistical categories had one of the best rookie QB seasons in NFL history. He was surrounded by minimal talent and was impressive all the way through, especially for a guy coming out of D1AA. If not for all eyes on Dak Prescott in Dallas, who was in a much more favorable situation, more eyes would have been all over Carson Wentz's phemonal rookie season. You can make a case with all things considered, it was the best in Eagles franchise history. And to throw one more name into the mix, let's not forget Ivan Provorov, who quickly adapted to the NHL as one of the game's most promising defensemen, and has potential to be one of the very best in the league for a long time to come. The fact is, not many cities in this country have the type of elite talent waiting in the wings that our city has.
With all 4 franchises on the right track, we are set up for greatness with all of our teams for years to come. On top of it, they've been fun and competitive each night for well over a year now. The time for misery is over.
"B...b...but Embiid gets hurt!"
"B...b...but Ben Simmons' jump shot!"
"B...b...but Carson Wentz sails some passes!"
Shhhhhhhhh.
You're doing it again, Philadelphia. Harping on the negative. You can do the same thing with any rookie. I could have criticized Ryan Howard's weight, or mediocre defense at first base. I could have harped on Cole Hamels coming into the league without a monster secondary pitch after his changeup. I could have brought up Allen Iverson's porous defense over and over again. Philadelphia didn't do any of that. This city used to focus on the positives, not the negatives. I don't know what has made us into this. This city has had tough stretches before. The 70's, the early 90's. We feel defeated, and that is a shame, because you are going to miss some great stuff going on in this city, stuff that is already going on as I type this.
Philadelphia boasts to be "all about championships." Remember all the times people spoke about how getting to NFC Championship games weren't good enough? "All I want is a Superbowl!" Remember when the Sixers couldn't sell out playoff games of teams led by Andre Iguodala? "We know they aren't winning a championship anyway, so why pay money?" Now, the city's sports teams have finally collectively embraced the desire to build teams that can win titles, and we have turned our backs on them. For shame. Building championship teams takes time. You can't just snap your fingers and skip over the rebuilding process. That isn't how it works. Wouldn't you love to just start a business and skip to the part where you become a billionaire? It doesn't work that way. Building a corporate empire takes time. You build up your company bit by bit. That is how things work in the real world.
So, I have news for you Philadelphia. It's time to shake that "woe is me" attitude, and start embracing the greatness that Philly sports is evolving into. If not, then when we start averaging two parades a year for the next decade, then do all of us grateful fans a favor and stay home. Sit on your couch and whine about how "The Eagles only won the Superbowl by a field goal!" or "The Sixers only won the NBA Finals in 5 games and couldn't pull off the sweep!" Keep your whiny, miserable asses away from the rest of us, and don't bring us down.
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