I've noticed a lot of cynicism with Eagles fans and media for this upcoming Eagles season. I really don't get where it's coming from, as they've had one of the strongest offseasons in all of the NFL, and they are coming off a very promising season where headed into last season many people projected them to win 4 or 5 games.
I don't see a lot of weaknesses on the roster. In fact, if you use the term weakness literally, I only see one, and that is the CB position. They are really solid or better than that at every other position. My biggest question mark on the team actually isn't a position. It's the overall coaching staff. I thought after a strong start, Doug Pederson regressed as the games became more important and defensive coordinators had a book on him. Granted, he didn't have a ton of help with Lane Johnson's suspension, a rookie QB, the worst group of WRs in NFL history, and a running game that dealt with injuries. Still, he made some asinine decisions talent aside, and cost the Eagles at least 2 or 3 games almost single-handedly. Jim Schwartz on the other side of the ball was disappointing with all the hype and expectations that came with his hiring. Like the offense, the defense started off strong, especially the pass rush, and got to the QB consistently through the first 8 games of the season. In the second half of the season, the pass rush disappeared and the weak CB play was exposed even more. He showed a tendency to be stuck in his ways, a lack of motivation to adapt his game plan to each individual opponent. To put it lightly, I was not impressed and he has a lot to prove.
However, I am quite optimistic about the actual players and roster of the Eagles headed into next season, so here is my position-by-position breakdown of the roster and how I think they stack up with the rest of the NFC East. This is for next season alone, I'm not projecting farther into the future for this specific breakdown.
QB: I am a huge fan of Carson Wentz. I think he is going to be one of the 7 best QBs in the NFL for a decade. Right now I'd rank him 2nd in the NFC East behind Kirk(Kurt) Cousins for next season. Long-term I like Wentz as the best QB in this division, but Cousins has progressed enough to think he's more polished next season. I've never been an Eli Manning fan, and he has been less than impressive the last couple seasons as he winds down to the end of his caeer and Dallas still has no QB on their roster. Just that guy Jack or Zack or whatever his name is. He's not an NFL player and will be out of the league in 3 years. The Prophet has spoken. Foles is an excellent backup, and McGloin is... whatever. This is a strong unit for the Eagles with quality depth and potential for greatness.
RB : Not the Eagles' strongest unit, but decent enough. They lack that superstar gamebreaker, but they have experienced veterans with complimentary skill sets. I'm a firm believer that your running game in the NFL is 70% offensive line and 30% your actual RB. A great run blocking line can make almost any RB look competent, as long as the RB isn't putrid. The Eagles should have a quality enough running game to do whatever they want to do. I'll put it 2nd in the NFC East behind Dallas. The Giants' running game has sucked for years, and the Redskins are in kind of a similar place to the Eagles with less experience in the position.
WR: By far the most improved unit on the roster. They added what I consider a true #1 top 12 WR in the league with Alshon Jeffery and a deep threat in Torrey Smith coming off of a horrible year. The good news for projecting Torrey is that he didn't show a lack of explosiveness, so I highly doubt his struggles were ability-driven. It was likely him being in a bad situation, and is a great candidate for a bounce back year. Jordan Matthews being your #3 and slot guy is an excellent role for him. His biggest knock is that he wasn't a #1 guy, but as your #3 he's tremendous. Agholor is who he is until proven otherwise, but I like Mack Hollins. He has a chance to be at least a situational deep threat this upcoming season at a minimum and perhaps more. Shelton Gibson has talent as well, but there are roster number questions as to if he'll make the team. This is a really good unit with potential to be one of the team's biggest strengths. As a unit I rank them 2nd in the NFC East behind the Giants, who easily have the best WRs in the division. I put them ahead of Dallas because while I'll rank Dez Bryant slightly ahead of Alshon Jeffery, the Eagles have more and better depth at the position. The Redskins basically had a complete upheaval of their entire WR corps, and they have made a solid addition in Pryor(who isn't as good as Jeffery) and Doctson is a TBD. Crowder had a very good year, but he's not a focal point, and they will miss DeSean Jackson's ability to stretch a defense.
TE: I like this position for the Eagles more than a lot of other people. Zach Ertz is a top 12 TE in the NFL, and will continue to get better as the Eagles get continuity at the QB position. Ertz had a new QB throwing him the ball for 3 straight seasons, which explains his slow starts. He's productive, knows how to get open, and can get behind a defense. Celek and Burton provide solid depth. The Eagles are strong here, I'd rank them 2nd in the division behind the Redskins. Jordan Reed is easily the best TE in the division right now. I'd project Ertz to be better than an aging Witten for next season, and the Giants have a real weakness at that spot until Engram can prove his worth in the NFL.
OL: Arguably the best position on the team. This offensive line is one of the 5 best in football. It has depth, it has some of the best tackles in the sport, and Brandon Brooks was a quality addition last year. They should provide plenty of time for Wentz to throw the ball, and open up running lanes for their backs. I'll have to put them 2nd in the NFC East though, because Dallas currently has the best line in the game, and the Redskins isn't too shabby either. I think they are very close to the Eagles and could be a coin flip there. I give the Eagles the slight edge, because I think the depth is better. The Giants have a horrible offensive line, which will be the downfall of their team this upcoming season.
DL: The second best unit on the team behind the offensive line. If the Eagles are great anywhere, it's on the lines, which is why I'm very optimistic about the team this season. They upgraded and got younger by adding Tim Jernigan in the offseason to provide a great interior pass rushing tandem with Fletcher Cox. Jernigan is also pretty stout in run defense as well. Adding depth at DE with Derek Barnett and Chris Long will only improve the pass rush of last season, which started off great and wore down. This is easily the best defensive line in the NFC East. I'll put the Giants 2nd behind them, the Redskins 3rd, and Dallas 4th. Dallas' defensive line is their weakest position.
LB: Another underrated unit by many. Jordan Hicks is as good of a 4-3 LB you'll find in the NFL, and Nigel Bradham had a very strong first year with the Eagles. Kendricks has been disappointing, but he's not what I'd call a bad player, he's just inconsistent. It's not elite in terms of the NFL, but it's easily the best LB corps in the NFC East. This division is really lacking at this position. I guess I'd put the Redskins 2nd with Dallas and the Giants fighting over who wants to be dead last.
CB: Easily the weakest area of the team, and quite possibly the weakest in the NFL. This will be a major issue for the Eagles going forward unless rookie Douglas plays much better than expected out of the gate. The Eagles are lucky their defensive line is loaded, it may be the only thing preventing this area from being a disaster. I am high on Jalen Mills though. I think he has that competitive fire I like in defensive players. I expect him to improve. Patrick Robinson is as mediocre as they come. The Giants easily have the best CBs in the NFC East, and the other 3 teams aren't exactly strong at the position. The Cowboys totally revamped almost their entire secondary, so if their young guys disappoint, they could actually be worse than the Eagles. The Giants are the best, with the Redskins second, and the Cowboys are one Scandrick down year from being worse than the Eagles.
Safety: Yet another underrated group. Jenkins is coming off a down year, but mainly because he was asked to play slot corner after Ron Brooks went down with a knee injury. When he plays safety, he's excellent, and Rodney McLeod is unheralded, but is a rock solid player. He doesn't wow you, but he covers, he hits, he can play in run support. I like him. The Eagles have the best safety tandem in the NFC East even with Landon Collins having a great sophmore season for the Giants. The Cowboys will be 3rd with Byron Jones being pretty talented and the Redskins dead last with almost nothing at the position.
Special Teams: The Eagles have far and away the best special teams in the NFC East and quite possibly the NFL. If there is any area Chip Kelly actually did right, it was the special teams. While Sturgis isn't the caliber kicker Dan Bailey is, the Eagles excel in all their coverage and return units. The Eagles come in at #1 in the division with Dallas at #2 and the Redskins and Giants jockeying for last.
Overall, I think the outlook for the Eagles season is very positive. They only have one tremendously weak area positionally, have improved in key spots, and are great on the lines. The key to this upcoming season is Wentz. If he improves as expected, lock the Eagles in as a playoff team barring injury. If not, things could get murky, but I have no reason to believe someone as talented as Wentz, with the work ethic to match will not improve with legit weapons this time around.
Friday, July 21, 2017
Thursday, July 6, 2017
10 reasons why the Sixers should finish on the high end of the win prediction spectrum
In a time where everyone seems to be putting out their preliminary win predictions for the Sixers, I figured I'd throw my hat in the ring, but with a different twist. My current prediction is 45 wins(injuries and minutes restrictions permitting). I'm going to give my 10 reasons why I think the Sixers should finish on the higher end of the win prediction spectrum. Again, injuries permitting.
1. With Embiid on the court, the Sixers simply just win
With Embiid on the court for the Sixers this past season, the Sixers played to the level of an upper-echelon playoff team. The numbers and metrics back that up if they didn't pass your eye test in that regard. They are the highest rated defensive team in the entire NBA with Embiid on the court, and offensively are significantly better also. Assuming you get a lot more games out of Embiid, the Sixers would have pushed for a playoff spot last season and certainly will(and more) next season.
2. Two #1 overall picks added to the roster
The Sixers had a 10-5 January last season and were playing playoff caliber basketball with the likes of TJ McConnell and Nik Stauskas getting significant minutes. Nothing against them, TJ is a fan favorite, but when you add Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons to your roster, you are going to be significantly better. Sure, they'll take time to jell, but you could say the same about the Sixers last season and they got better as the season went on.
3. The JJ Redick factor(and Amir Johnson)
JJ Redick not only provides the Sixers with floor spacing as one of the most accurate 3 point shooters in NBA history(it's true), but he also provides veteran leadership a young team needs. Same goes for Amir Johnson. And their presence just makes the Sixers even deeper. Which leads to...
4. The Sixers have one of the best benches in the NBA
If there was any silver lining to the injuries this past season, it was that bench caliber players got starter's minutes, and going forward they will be much more seasoned than your typical bench players. The entire Sixers roster pretty much had plenty of playing time last season, and got them much-needed development time. This should do wonders for their contributions next season. The Sixers are loaded with quality NBA talents up and down the roster. No stiffs who don't belong will be seeing the floor next season.
5. The Okafor and Embiid experiment is dead
Last season, the Sixers fucked around with that Embiid and Okafor lineup way too many times when even your most casual fans knew it wouldn't work. Not coincidentally, literally the first game the Sixers stopped going to that lineup is when their season started to turn and they started winning. We won't see them together starting next season at all. That cost the Sixers a good 5+ wins last season, if not more, and it's gone never to return.
6. The Eastern Conference is as bad as it has ever been
With Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Paul Millsap(who?) going out West, the East gets even weaker. Half the teams in the conference are going to tank for Michael Porter Jr. or Luka Doncic, so the Sixers can beat up on a weakened and vulnerable conference.
7. Home Court Advantage is back
The Sixers sold 14,000 new season tickets, which is the most in the entire league. Home court advantage like from the early Iverson days will be back, and that place will be rocking. Expect the Sixers to be one of the better home teams next season feeding off of that crowd.
8. The Sixers have a great developmental staff
With a young team, you need the right coaching staff to bring the players along, and this staff has proven that they have what it takes to develop and get the most out of young players. Normally, I'd be pretty concerned about a potential starting lineup of two rookies(Fultz and Simmons) and Embiid who only played 31 games, but I expect this staff to have them developing quickly. We saw it last season with how quickly Joel Embiid improved his game. Things like learning how to handle double teams, passing out of the post, running off screens, defensive awareness. TLC and Dario both got noticeably better as the season went along as well, and even Nik Stauskas started to finally find a niche for himself after an extremely disappointing start to his career. This staff knows what they're doing with young guys. Hell, they must be used to it by now after the last 4 years.
9. The core puts winning above their own egos
With the talent Embiid, Fultz, and Simmons have, you'd almost expect them to be a little selfish and want to be "the guy" to represent this franchise going forward. I don't see that being the case. From what I've read and seen, these guys just want to win. They are willing to make the necessary sacrifices for the overall good of the team, and they are willing to put in the extra work on the practice court to improve their overall games. No big heads here. Just great talents with the work ethic and character to back it up.
10. The national media thinks they are a borderline playoff team
The national media has been wrong about every single Sixers-related 'Process' thing since Sam Hinkie was first hired. From "tanking guarantees nothing" to "The Sixers will never have anyone desire to play there bc LOSING CULTURE!" Now you see almost half the league following suit of what Hinkie did, and the national media not uttering a peep about it. So if they expect the Sixers to "fight to barely squeak into the playoffs" expect them to be wrong like they have been since day one and the Sixers to be much better than everyone thought.
1. With Embiid on the court, the Sixers simply just win
With Embiid on the court for the Sixers this past season, the Sixers played to the level of an upper-echelon playoff team. The numbers and metrics back that up if they didn't pass your eye test in that regard. They are the highest rated defensive team in the entire NBA with Embiid on the court, and offensively are significantly better also. Assuming you get a lot more games out of Embiid, the Sixers would have pushed for a playoff spot last season and certainly will(and more) next season.
2. Two #1 overall picks added to the roster
The Sixers had a 10-5 January last season and were playing playoff caliber basketball with the likes of TJ McConnell and Nik Stauskas getting significant minutes. Nothing against them, TJ is a fan favorite, but when you add Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons to your roster, you are going to be significantly better. Sure, they'll take time to jell, but you could say the same about the Sixers last season and they got better as the season went on.
3. The JJ Redick factor(and Amir Johnson)
JJ Redick not only provides the Sixers with floor spacing as one of the most accurate 3 point shooters in NBA history(it's true), but he also provides veteran leadership a young team needs. Same goes for Amir Johnson. And their presence just makes the Sixers even deeper. Which leads to...
4. The Sixers have one of the best benches in the NBA
If there was any silver lining to the injuries this past season, it was that bench caliber players got starter's minutes, and going forward they will be much more seasoned than your typical bench players. The entire Sixers roster pretty much had plenty of playing time last season, and got them much-needed development time. This should do wonders for their contributions next season. The Sixers are loaded with quality NBA talents up and down the roster. No stiffs who don't belong will be seeing the floor next season.
5. The Okafor and Embiid experiment is dead
Last season, the Sixers fucked around with that Embiid and Okafor lineup way too many times when even your most casual fans knew it wouldn't work. Not coincidentally, literally the first game the Sixers stopped going to that lineup is when their season started to turn and they started winning. We won't see them together starting next season at all. That cost the Sixers a good 5+ wins last season, if not more, and it's gone never to return.
6. The Eastern Conference is as bad as it has ever been
With Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Paul Millsap(who?) going out West, the East gets even weaker. Half the teams in the conference are going to tank for Michael Porter Jr. or Luka Doncic, so the Sixers can beat up on a weakened and vulnerable conference.
7. Home Court Advantage is back
The Sixers sold 14,000 new season tickets, which is the most in the entire league. Home court advantage like from the early Iverson days will be back, and that place will be rocking. Expect the Sixers to be one of the better home teams next season feeding off of that crowd.
8. The Sixers have a great developmental staff
With a young team, you need the right coaching staff to bring the players along, and this staff has proven that they have what it takes to develop and get the most out of young players. Normally, I'd be pretty concerned about a potential starting lineup of two rookies(Fultz and Simmons) and Embiid who only played 31 games, but I expect this staff to have them developing quickly. We saw it last season with how quickly Joel Embiid improved his game. Things like learning how to handle double teams, passing out of the post, running off screens, defensive awareness. TLC and Dario both got noticeably better as the season went along as well, and even Nik Stauskas started to finally find a niche for himself after an extremely disappointing start to his career. This staff knows what they're doing with young guys. Hell, they must be used to it by now after the last 4 years.
9. The core puts winning above their own egos
With the talent Embiid, Fultz, and Simmons have, you'd almost expect them to be a little selfish and want to be "the guy" to represent this franchise going forward. I don't see that being the case. From what I've read and seen, these guys just want to win. They are willing to make the necessary sacrifices for the overall good of the team, and they are willing to put in the extra work on the practice court to improve their overall games. No big heads here. Just great talents with the work ethic and character to back it up.
10. The national media thinks they are a borderline playoff team
The national media has been wrong about every single Sixers-related 'Process' thing since Sam Hinkie was first hired. From "tanking guarantees nothing" to "The Sixers will never have anyone desire to play there bc LOSING CULTURE!" Now you see almost half the league following suit of what Hinkie did, and the national media not uttering a peep about it. So if they expect the Sixers to "fight to barely squeak into the playoffs" expect them to be wrong like they have been since day one and the Sixers to be much better than everyone thought.
Monday, June 26, 2017
'The Process' was torture, but I wouldn't trade the journey for anything
Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz. Just uttering those names excites me as a Sixers fan. Oh, and don't forget the most cap room in the NBA, a #1 protected Lakers pick in 2018 and a #1 protected Kings pick in 2019. It is easily the most excited I have been as a fan since the Sixers went to the NBA Finals in 2001.
This was a bitter, rugged, painful road, but I feel a sense of pride that I was able to endure it with all of the other Sixers fans. The journey is just as important in life as the destination. There is a reason daring(and possibly insane?) people risk their lives every single year scaling Mount Everest, which is statistically the most dangerous thing a human being can do. If you could just take a teleporter and appear at the peak of the mountain, no one would any desire to do such a thing. People do it because it's dangerous and incredibly difficult and trying. People do it because few in this world can claim such a feat. They do it because it gives them a great deal of pride that they were able to overcome one of planet earth's greatest challenges. I feel that way about being a fan during the era of 'The Process'. This level of tanking was unprecedented throughout NBA history, and their level of losing was close to it. It took every ounce of sports fan strength to stomach it. I'm glad I did and I wouldn't change it for anything.
Philadelphia had the longest four sport championship drought between 1983 and 2008. It was a bitter pill to swallow for Philly sports fans, but one thing it accomplished was make us more appreciative of how hard it is to win a championship. Anytime you endure adversity in life, it makes you appreciate the little things. Then once you get over the hump, it's nothing but pure elation. Ask the 2+ million fans who stormed Broad Street on October 31st, 2008. The Sixers didn't take any shortcuts. They didn't lure some hometown superstar from another team to come home and save the franchise. They didn't have a superstar already who could attract other stars to come play here. The Sixers built this roster from scratch. Through draft picks, trades, a few signings here and there, and lots and lots of losing.
As a gamer, if you've ever played The Elder Scrolls series, you'd understand. It's an open-world video game where you can go anywhere and do anything. You start off with basically nothing and have to build up your character as you progress in the world. It sucks starting off with rags as clothing and crappy iron swords, but what makes it so much fun is building yourself up from nothing, the character progression as you advance, and seeing the final result hundreds of hours later. Progression keeps us motivated and interested in life. Like watching a painting or sculpture come together bit by bit.
With all that said, there's a fine line between journey and hell. If you knew you had to run across a bed of hot coals that lasted forever, no one would do it. That's sadistic. If this tanking went on forever, over time it would have become unbearable and even the most steadfast of fans would have checked out eventually. It didn't, though. The hard part is over. We reached the other side. And when we (hopefully) reach the pinnacle of success one day, we can look back and say we all endured 'The Process' together.
This was a bitter, rugged, painful road, but I feel a sense of pride that I was able to endure it with all of the other Sixers fans. The journey is just as important in life as the destination. There is a reason daring(and possibly insane?) people risk their lives every single year scaling Mount Everest, which is statistically the most dangerous thing a human being can do. If you could just take a teleporter and appear at the peak of the mountain, no one would any desire to do such a thing. People do it because it's dangerous and incredibly difficult and trying. People do it because few in this world can claim such a feat. They do it because it gives them a great deal of pride that they were able to overcome one of planet earth's greatest challenges. I feel that way about being a fan during the era of 'The Process'. This level of tanking was unprecedented throughout NBA history, and their level of losing was close to it. It took every ounce of sports fan strength to stomach it. I'm glad I did and I wouldn't change it for anything.
Philadelphia had the longest four sport championship drought between 1983 and 2008. It was a bitter pill to swallow for Philly sports fans, but one thing it accomplished was make us more appreciative of how hard it is to win a championship. Anytime you endure adversity in life, it makes you appreciate the little things. Then once you get over the hump, it's nothing but pure elation. Ask the 2+ million fans who stormed Broad Street on October 31st, 2008. The Sixers didn't take any shortcuts. They didn't lure some hometown superstar from another team to come home and save the franchise. They didn't have a superstar already who could attract other stars to come play here. The Sixers built this roster from scratch. Through draft picks, trades, a few signings here and there, and lots and lots of losing.
As a gamer, if you've ever played The Elder Scrolls series, you'd understand. It's an open-world video game where you can go anywhere and do anything. You start off with basically nothing and have to build up your character as you progress in the world. It sucks starting off with rags as clothing and crappy iron swords, but what makes it so much fun is building yourself up from nothing, the character progression as you advance, and seeing the final result hundreds of hours later. Progression keeps us motivated and interested in life. Like watching a painting or sculpture come together bit by bit.
With all that said, there's a fine line between journey and hell. If you knew you had to run across a bed of hot coals that lasted forever, no one would do it. That's sadistic. If this tanking went on forever, over time it would have become unbearable and even the most steadfast of fans would have checked out eventually. It didn't, though. The hard part is over. We reached the other side. And when we (hopefully) reach the pinnacle of success one day, we can look back and say we all endured 'The Process' together.
Saturday, June 24, 2017
The Universe(and Bryan)(and Sam) rewarded the Sixers with Markelle Fultz
I'm an avid fan of science. Specifically physics. I believe that our universe was created by a series of coincidences and blind chance. That in the formation of our universe, when matter and anti-matter were cancelling each other out, just enough matter somehow luckily made it through unscathed, which allowed the existence of all matter in our amazing universe that we have today. I believe that in this endless star ocean, that things tend to even out... that the scales tend to balance. Science and nature seem to always find a way to even things out and provide symmetry. Mankind wouldn't have come to exist without it. This very principle trickles down to this incredibly insignificant thing that we all seem to love called sports. The stars had to align so to speak, for the Sixers to have any shot at winding up with Markelle Fultz to complete their trio of young superstar prospects. Let's take a look at all the things that had to go right for the Sixers to end up with him.
The Lakers pick had to not convey to the Sixers for 3 straight years
The famous Lakers pick that the Sixers acquired in the Michael Carter Williams trade, was top 5 protected in 2015, top 3 protected in 2016, and top 3 protected in 2017. For the Sixers to have been able to trade up to #1 and take Fultz, the pick needed to not convey in at least the first two years, and very likely the third, because Boston right now seems to covet future assets a great deal. The chances of the Lakers pick not conveying all those times is somewhere around 21%. It was highly unlikely that in 3 separate chances, the pick wouldn't convey to the Sixers once. Oh, and maybe a little "convincing" to the commissioner from Magic Johnson when he apparently guaranteed to head coach Luke Walton that they'd be keeping the pick. If the pick conveyed in 2015, the Sixers would have likely ended up with Emmanuel Mudiay, likely Kris Dunn if it conveyed in 2016, and if it conveyed this year who the hell knows. Mudiay and Dunn are both point guards, and with either of them on the roster, who knows if they even consider the pursuit of Markelle Fultz a priority.
The picks needed to swap
The Kings had a 10% chance at jumping into the top 3. It happened. Otherwise, the Sixers would have been left with just the #5 overall pick, making the price to jump up to #1 even steeper, and less likely Boston would even consider it. Praise Hinkie.
Boston had to get the #1 overall pick
The Celtics are one of the few teams(if any) that would have traded out of the top spot. Historically, it rarely happens in the NBA, and it takes a team that is obsessed with kicking the can down the road and amassing future assets to strike a deal. The Celtics happened to be that team, and sure, they had the best odds at getting the pick, but it was still an only 25% chance, and after a decade of the team with the best odds not getting the #1 pick, this was the 3rd year in a row it happened. Hey, Mr. Universe, are you trying to balance things out again???
The Kings needed to trade DeMarcus Cousins
Let's face it, the Kings wouldn't have tumbled down the standings after actually flirting with the 8th seed in the playoffs for a while there, had they not traded Cousins. They got rid of their superstar and the team fell apart. It pushed the Kings down the standings right into that sweet #8 spot that happened to be the perfect place to jump into the top 3, allowing the trade to happen.
The Lakers needed to go on a late-season winning streak
The Lakers were an abysmal team all season, especially after they dealt Lou Williams right before the trade deadline. They were nip/tuck with the Suns all season long for that #2 spot. The Lakers clinched the 3rd spot in the lottery by going on an unlikely 4 game winning streak, WHILE PLAYING RON ARTEST IN THE 4TH QUARTER TO TANK no less, and one of those wins was a buzzer beater on a broken play by De'Angelo Russell. If the Lakers had finished in the #2 spot, they would have fallen to #4(instead the Suns did) and the Sixers would have received the pick. If this happens, who knows if Boston is as interested in that pick in trading down from #1.
The Kings needed to lose the final game and the Mavs needed to win it
The Kings and Mavs were tied with the same records headed into the final game of the season. The Kings ended up losing their game and the Mavs ended up winning it. By the way, as badly as the Lakers tanked at the end of the season, no one tanked as hardcore as Mark Cuban and the Mavs, who basically played their bench for the entire 2nd half of each game in the final 2-3 weeks of the season. However, as luck would have it, the Mavs and their bench win on the road in Memphis-who is a playoff team, and the Kings lost. Had the results been reversed, the Mavs would have finished 8th, the Kings 9th, and the Mavs would have jumped into the top 3. That means no swap and no #1 pick for the Sixers.
The universe needed to do its thing
When you break it all down, you see how amazing it is that the Sixers are sitting here today with Markelle Fultz, who is the perfect fit next to Embiid and Simmons, and the high-level scoring guard this team has needed since Allen Iverson was traded. In a city that seems to pout and moan about our luck all the time, Philadelphia got extremely lucky here, people. Remember, it seems just like yesterday where grumpy fans and radio hosts were whining about the Lakers pick not conveying after every lottery. "We're never gonna get the pick! Who knows if we even get a better player than MCW!" Turns out, the pick not conveying ended up being a blessing in disguise. What seemed unlucky ended up turning into one of the luckiest things that happened to the franchise in 30 years.
We're also fortunate that in this specific draft, when the assets were ripe for trading, that a player like Fultz was available. You never know what the strengths and weaknesses of each draft will be, and for this draft to have a guard, which was our biggest need, sitting at the top made is very fortunate. And to take it one step further, the Sixers were very lucky to get top 3 picks for 4 straight years, and the Sixers got the #1 rated player in 3 of them. All of which were very strong drafts. If their tanking had happened in another set of years, they may not have the franchise-altering talents that they have right now. For all the criticisms about how tanking "doesn't guarantee anything!" the Sixers came out FAR AND AWAY on the lucky end of the spectrum. Almost too lucky. Did Harris sell his soul like Brad Lidge did in 2008 for a perfect season? Josh Harris has three #1 picks in the last calendar year between the Sixers and Devils(speaking of selling your soul).
Our fan base suffered through a lot. Four years of horrible basketball, and in the one season that showed promise, Ben Simmons got hurt on the final play of the final practice before the season kicked off. Joel Embiid was dominating and creating a buzz in the city we haven't had since Allen Iverson, and he comes down from a dunk, his knee buckles, and his season ended. Jerryd Bayless hurt his wrist in camp and missed practically the entire season. Robert Covington hurt his knee. Oh, and don't forget we suffered through Jahlil Okafor. I said all year long that the sports gods owe us. No one deserved to suffer that badly, we needed to be rewarded with the #1 pick. And while we didn't get #1 in the lottery, a million things had to go right for the Sixers to trade up and take Fultz, and by Zeus they did. Our luck was balanced. The universe had spoken. Symmetry... just like we deserved.
Enjoy, Philadelphia. This is our time.
The Lakers pick had to not convey to the Sixers for 3 straight years
The famous Lakers pick that the Sixers acquired in the Michael Carter Williams trade, was top 5 protected in 2015, top 3 protected in 2016, and top 3 protected in 2017. For the Sixers to have been able to trade up to #1 and take Fultz, the pick needed to not convey in at least the first two years, and very likely the third, because Boston right now seems to covet future assets a great deal. The chances of the Lakers pick not conveying all those times is somewhere around 21%. It was highly unlikely that in 3 separate chances, the pick wouldn't convey to the Sixers once. Oh, and maybe a little "convincing" to the commissioner from Magic Johnson when he apparently guaranteed to head coach Luke Walton that they'd be keeping the pick. If the pick conveyed in 2015, the Sixers would have likely ended up with Emmanuel Mudiay, likely Kris Dunn if it conveyed in 2016, and if it conveyed this year who the hell knows. Mudiay and Dunn are both point guards, and with either of them on the roster, who knows if they even consider the pursuit of Markelle Fultz a priority.
The picks needed to swap
The Kings had a 10% chance at jumping into the top 3. It happened. Otherwise, the Sixers would have been left with just the #5 overall pick, making the price to jump up to #1 even steeper, and less likely Boston would even consider it. Praise Hinkie.
Boston had to get the #1 overall pick
The Celtics are one of the few teams(if any) that would have traded out of the top spot. Historically, it rarely happens in the NBA, and it takes a team that is obsessed with kicking the can down the road and amassing future assets to strike a deal. The Celtics happened to be that team, and sure, they had the best odds at getting the pick, but it was still an only 25% chance, and after a decade of the team with the best odds not getting the #1 pick, this was the 3rd year in a row it happened. Hey, Mr. Universe, are you trying to balance things out again???
The Kings needed to trade DeMarcus Cousins
Let's face it, the Kings wouldn't have tumbled down the standings after actually flirting with the 8th seed in the playoffs for a while there, had they not traded Cousins. They got rid of their superstar and the team fell apart. It pushed the Kings down the standings right into that sweet #8 spot that happened to be the perfect place to jump into the top 3, allowing the trade to happen.
The Lakers needed to go on a late-season winning streak
The Lakers were an abysmal team all season, especially after they dealt Lou Williams right before the trade deadline. They were nip/tuck with the Suns all season long for that #2 spot. The Lakers clinched the 3rd spot in the lottery by going on an unlikely 4 game winning streak, WHILE PLAYING RON ARTEST IN THE 4TH QUARTER TO TANK no less, and one of those wins was a buzzer beater on a broken play by De'Angelo Russell. If the Lakers had finished in the #2 spot, they would have fallen to #4(instead the Suns did) and the Sixers would have received the pick. If this happens, who knows if Boston is as interested in that pick in trading down from #1.
The Kings needed to lose the final game and the Mavs needed to win it
The Kings and Mavs were tied with the same records headed into the final game of the season. The Kings ended up losing their game and the Mavs ended up winning it. By the way, as badly as the Lakers tanked at the end of the season, no one tanked as hardcore as Mark Cuban and the Mavs, who basically played their bench for the entire 2nd half of each game in the final 2-3 weeks of the season. However, as luck would have it, the Mavs and their bench win on the road in Memphis-who is a playoff team, and the Kings lost. Had the results been reversed, the Mavs would have finished 8th, the Kings 9th, and the Mavs would have jumped into the top 3. That means no swap and no #1 pick for the Sixers.
The universe needed to do its thing
When you break it all down, you see how amazing it is that the Sixers are sitting here today with Markelle Fultz, who is the perfect fit next to Embiid and Simmons, and the high-level scoring guard this team has needed since Allen Iverson was traded. In a city that seems to pout and moan about our luck all the time, Philadelphia got extremely lucky here, people. Remember, it seems just like yesterday where grumpy fans and radio hosts were whining about the Lakers pick not conveying after every lottery. "We're never gonna get the pick! Who knows if we even get a better player than MCW!" Turns out, the pick not conveying ended up being a blessing in disguise. What seemed unlucky ended up turning into one of the luckiest things that happened to the franchise in 30 years.
We're also fortunate that in this specific draft, when the assets were ripe for trading, that a player like Fultz was available. You never know what the strengths and weaknesses of each draft will be, and for this draft to have a guard, which was our biggest need, sitting at the top made is very fortunate. And to take it one step further, the Sixers were very lucky to get top 3 picks for 4 straight years, and the Sixers got the #1 rated player in 3 of them. All of which were very strong drafts. If their tanking had happened in another set of years, they may not have the franchise-altering talents that they have right now. For all the criticisms about how tanking "doesn't guarantee anything!" the Sixers came out FAR AND AWAY on the lucky end of the spectrum. Almost too lucky. Did Harris sell his soul like Brad Lidge did in 2008 for a perfect season? Josh Harris has three #1 picks in the last calendar year between the Sixers and Devils(speaking of selling your soul).
Our fan base suffered through a lot. Four years of horrible basketball, and in the one season that showed promise, Ben Simmons got hurt on the final play of the final practice before the season kicked off. Joel Embiid was dominating and creating a buzz in the city we haven't had since Allen Iverson, and he comes down from a dunk, his knee buckles, and his season ended. Jerryd Bayless hurt his wrist in camp and missed practically the entire season. Robert Covington hurt his knee. Oh, and don't forget we suffered through Jahlil Okafor. I said all year long that the sports gods owe us. No one deserved to suffer that badly, we needed to be rewarded with the #1 pick. And while we didn't get #1 in the lottery, a million things had to go right for the Sixers to trade up and take Fultz, and by Zeus they did. Our luck was balanced. The universe had spoken. Symmetry... just like we deserved.
Enjoy, Philadelphia. This is our time.
Wednesday, June 14, 2017
Almost a week before the NBA Draft thoughts and updated big board
The rumors are swirling fast and furious a little over a week before the NBA Draft, aaaaaaaaaaand I suspect almost all of them are complete and total garbage. The first rumor is that the Kings are considering trading 5 and 10 to get the 3rd pick from the Sixers. I never bought into this rumor when it was first floated out weeks ago. The Kings are reported to be heavily interested in De'Aaron Fox and want to secure the ability to draft him. For one, he'll very likely be available with the 5th pick, so trading up is unnecessary. Secondly, the Kings are so far from contending, they need to add as many talented players as they can. Sacrificing another lottery pick to move up two spots for the 3rd pick seems like overkill for them. Oh, and as bad as Vlade Divac is at his job, there is this thing called personal pride, and I highly doubt he wants to get ripped off in another trade with the Sixers.
I don't even think it makes that much sense for the Sixers either... if they have a guy they highly covet at #3. The Sixers are loaded with young players and picks already, it's far more important they add the superior talent, than settling for lesser talent and more players. However, if their favorite player is someone they think would be available at 5, that changes things obviously.
Count me as someone who still doesn't buy the Lakers passing on Lonzo Ball for Josh Jackson. I have no doubts they are probably intrigued by Jackson's talents, but Ball is a perfect fit for them. As much as I don't like his form, he can shoot, and the Lakers desperately need shooting. He also gives them that floor general they lack. Watching the Lakers this past season way more than I should have to follow their draft pick status, they have no idea where they are going or what they're doing on the court. They have no direction and Ball would bring that instantly. I just don't see where Josh Jackson fits on their roster unless they truly don't care about fit at all and want to throw a bunch of guys together. He plays the same position as Ingram, and even if they moved Josh Jackson to the 2 they'd still have a horrible shooting lineup. Plus, the Lakers seem to think Paul George ending up there eventually is a formality at this point. If that ends up being the case, where does Jackson fit in 2018-19? I think the Lakers still take Ball at 2, and then the draft gets serious with the Sixers at 3.
Where do the Sixers go at 3? My gut still says Jackson, but I haven't been able to shake this Jayson Tatum feeling I've had for a week or so now. All this talk about "shooting" and "fit" coming from the Sixers whenever they speak has altered my thinking a bit. Plus, Jayson Tatum is the safe and "least sexy" pick of any potential pick at 3, and doesn't it always seem like when it's time to get super excited about the Sixers, something always happens to derail it? Ben Simmons getting hurt before the season, Embiid getting hurt after dominating as a rookie, Okafor not getting traded when it was looking like a trade was imminent, etc. Embiid is healthy, Simmons is healthy, so what could derail our excitement more than a pick that is considered least sexy? I'm not saying Tatum would be a bad pick, he could very well end up being better than Jackson, but it would leave a lot of Sixers fans feeling very "meh" heading into the summer leagues. Right now all we have is excitement headed into the season. My gut tells me the top 3 guys in consideration at 3 will be Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, and Dennis Smith Jr. If Lonzo Ball falls, insert him into the mix too.
Current big board:
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Josh Jackson
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
4. Jayson Tatum
5. Lonzo Ball
6. Malik Monk
7. Jonathan Isaac
8. De'Aaron Fox
9. Frank Ntilikina
10. Donovan Mitchell
I don't even think it makes that much sense for the Sixers either... if they have a guy they highly covet at #3. The Sixers are loaded with young players and picks already, it's far more important they add the superior talent, than settling for lesser talent and more players. However, if their favorite player is someone they think would be available at 5, that changes things obviously.
Count me as someone who still doesn't buy the Lakers passing on Lonzo Ball for Josh Jackson. I have no doubts they are probably intrigued by Jackson's talents, but Ball is a perfect fit for them. As much as I don't like his form, he can shoot, and the Lakers desperately need shooting. He also gives them that floor general they lack. Watching the Lakers this past season way more than I should have to follow their draft pick status, they have no idea where they are going or what they're doing on the court. They have no direction and Ball would bring that instantly. I just don't see where Josh Jackson fits on their roster unless they truly don't care about fit at all and want to throw a bunch of guys together. He plays the same position as Ingram, and even if they moved Josh Jackson to the 2 they'd still have a horrible shooting lineup. Plus, the Lakers seem to think Paul George ending up there eventually is a formality at this point. If that ends up being the case, where does Jackson fit in 2018-19? I think the Lakers still take Ball at 2, and then the draft gets serious with the Sixers at 3.
Where do the Sixers go at 3? My gut still says Jackson, but I haven't been able to shake this Jayson Tatum feeling I've had for a week or so now. All this talk about "shooting" and "fit" coming from the Sixers whenever they speak has altered my thinking a bit. Plus, Jayson Tatum is the safe and "least sexy" pick of any potential pick at 3, and doesn't it always seem like when it's time to get super excited about the Sixers, something always happens to derail it? Ben Simmons getting hurt before the season, Embiid getting hurt after dominating as a rookie, Okafor not getting traded when it was looking like a trade was imminent, etc. Embiid is healthy, Simmons is healthy, so what could derail our excitement more than a pick that is considered least sexy? I'm not saying Tatum would be a bad pick, he could very well end up being better than Jackson, but it would leave a lot of Sixers fans feeling very "meh" heading into the summer leagues. Right now all we have is excitement headed into the season. My gut tells me the top 3 guys in consideration at 3 will be Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, and Dennis Smith Jr. If Lonzo Ball falls, insert him into the mix too.
Current big board:
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Josh Jackson
3. Dennis Smith Jr.
4. Jayson Tatum
5. Lonzo Ball
6. Malik Monk
7. Jonathan Isaac
8. De'Aaron Fox
9. Frank Ntilikina
10. Donovan Mitchell
Monday, June 12, 2017
Why Kevin Durant isn't a true NBA champion
The majority of misguided sports fans will tell you a champion is any player who wins a championship. The majority of fans would be wrong. A champion is someone who defies the odds to come out on top. Winning is only meaningful if the path is difficult and trying. That's what makes winning special. The road, not the finish. For the Warriors, this path was not. Kevin Durant, one of the NBA's 3 best players joined the NBA's best team(despite losing in the Finals the previous season) to bolster his chances at winning a title. There is nothing wrong with him doing so, it was his right. He is not a "coward" and is not "weak" for exercising his right to pick what team he wants to play for. Unfortunately, one thing he also is not is a champion. Jumping on the wagon of a 73 win team to coast through the finish line does not make you a champion. Not by my standards.
Do you feel satisfied if you win a game in Madden playing on rookie difficulty? Or win a game on Halo using mods or exploits? Would you feel like you conquered your bully at school if you brought Conor McGregor with you to help beat him up? The satisfaction in victory is directly proportional to the challenge it takes to get there, and to the Warriors this season, there was no challenge. Kevin Durant's legacy has not changed, and he has not joined another tier as a player. No more respect should be given to him than there was 2 weeks or even a year ago. He was a great player before he joined Golden State, and he is a great player now. However, a champion he is not. Not by my standards.
The same applies to other athletes, not just Kevin Durant. LeBron James won his first real NBA championship last season with the Cavaliers. The ones in Miami don't count for the same reason they don't count for Durant. Plus the fact that both of their "championships" in Miami were fixed by the league to get LeBron his ring, per reliable sources close to the situation. However, LeBron returning home against the odds, to lead a team himself and bring a championship to Cleveland was something for the ages. The pressure of lifting the longest "curse" in American Professional Major sports was about as real as a championship can get. Will Durant ever be able to accomplish something similar? He certainly has the talent. I'd like to see it, but until then his "championship ring" is going to be decorated with cubic zirconia instead of diamonds. A cheap imitation of the real thing. Much like this "accomplishment."
Do you feel satisfied if you win a game in Madden playing on rookie difficulty? Or win a game on Halo using mods or exploits? Would you feel like you conquered your bully at school if you brought Conor McGregor with you to help beat him up? The satisfaction in victory is directly proportional to the challenge it takes to get there, and to the Warriors this season, there was no challenge. Kevin Durant's legacy has not changed, and he has not joined another tier as a player. No more respect should be given to him than there was 2 weeks or even a year ago. He was a great player before he joined Golden State, and he is a great player now. However, a champion he is not. Not by my standards.
The same applies to other athletes, not just Kevin Durant. LeBron James won his first real NBA championship last season with the Cavaliers. The ones in Miami don't count for the same reason they don't count for Durant. Plus the fact that both of their "championships" in Miami were fixed by the league to get LeBron his ring, per reliable sources close to the situation. However, LeBron returning home against the odds, to lead a team himself and bring a championship to Cleveland was something for the ages. The pressure of lifting the longest "curse" in American Professional Major sports was about as real as a championship can get. Will Durant ever be able to accomplish something similar? He certainly has the talent. I'd like to see it, but until then his "championship ring" is going to be decorated with cubic zirconia instead of diamonds. A cheap imitation of the real thing. Much like this "accomplishment."
The Warriors are the most overrated team of this generation
Just like older sports fans have blinders on about the greatness of "their day" and refuse to acknowledge newer-generation players as being the greatest, younger fans have their own sets of blinders. In an age of social media, fancy gadgets, forms of entertainment on-demand, this has become an impatient, antsy, and OCD generation. In movies and TV people want dragons, mechs, CGI, and superheroes with powers. In technology people want virtual reality, portability, multiplayer battles epic in scale. And in sports people want fast and furious offenses. That's why the Warriors appeal to our younger generation. They are like a shiny object being dangled in the water. All the fish flock to it. The Warriors run up and down the court and shoot a lot of 3's. They pass, and cut, and area always on the move. They are OCD sports fan's dream. So it's easy to see why fans 40 and under might find them incredibly appealing and be partial to the Warriors, possibly rating them as the greatest team to ever play in the NBA. The problem is, the facts, match-ups, and stats simply don't back it up. The Warriors are a tremendous team, but when people start referring to them as "the greatest team in the history of professional sports!" that is when it's time for level-headed people to reel them back in and whip out the overrated tag.
On the surface, before losing game 4 "Fo Fo Fo Fo" sounded impressive, because it's never been done. However, considering that the NBA has only adopted the 7-7-7-7 format recently, and was 5-7-7-7 for quite a while before that, many of the NBA's great teams were not even eligible for "Fo Fo Fo Fo" anyway. Plus, their road to their championship was not all that impressive. The Trailblazers were average at best, and playing with an injured Jusuf Nurkic. The Jazz were were a little bit better, but playing with a gimpy Rudy Gobert. Then, of course, the Spurs were up 25 points in game 1 in Golden State, and lost their best player and MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard to an injury, while already missing arguably their best player in Tony Parker. I suspect the series would have gone 6 games with Kawhi Leonard playing, and with Gregg Popovich's coaching prowess able to match the Warriors with creative adjustments. The Warriors most assuredly would have won the first two rounds anyway, likely both still sweeps, but the conference finals would have been much closer, and the road certainly would have been tougher. Part of the backing of the "best ever" narrative is predicated on the easy road the Warriors had getting there, while people forget the road wasn't easy just because of the talent of Golden State, but because of the lack of talent and/or injuries of their opponents. The Cavaliers are a quality opponent, but don't forget, they finished 2nd in the East for a reason. Their defense has been poor all season long, and stylistically, they are a bad match-up for Golden State whose strength is their offense. The argument that the Cleveland is a juggernaut team that the Warriors are handling is just not true. Not to mention that if not for a late-game meltdown in game 3, this series would have been tied 2-2. This series is a lot closer than let on.
One area where I can say the Warriors rank among the best ever is on the offensive end. They are one of the most dynamic and explosive offenses you will ever see. They are not a complete team though, at least comparing them to all-time great teams in terms of rebounding and defense. Their defense was exposed quite a bit in game 4, allowing an inconceivable 86 first half points, and almost 140 for the game. Their defense allowed an average of 105 ppg on the season. Fine for today's NBA, but not even close to some of the best defensive teams throughout history. They have one great individual defender in Draymond Green. Klay Thompson is as solid as they come as a defender, but the over-eagerness to fellate the Warriors has people using hyperbole and exaggerations when analyzing his defense. The same goes for Kevin Durant. He has improved dramatically as a defender, but he is still far from what I'd call "great." If I'm going to start throwing around "best ever" labels, then that team has to be great or close to great in every single facet of the game. The Warriors are not. Not that the level of Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers and Shaq's Lakers, Duncan's Spurs, among other historic teams.
Our younger generation prefers the sexier and sleeker tablet or Microsoft surface to a bigger and bulkier desktop that is infinitely more powerful in the same way that they prefer the eye candy of the Golden State Warriors over some superior, but less attractive teams of days past. Are they a sensational team? Of course. Best ever. Not so fast.
On the surface, before losing game 4 "Fo Fo Fo Fo" sounded impressive, because it's never been done. However, considering that the NBA has only adopted the 7-7-7-7 format recently, and was 5-7-7-7 for quite a while before that, many of the NBA's great teams were not even eligible for "Fo Fo Fo Fo" anyway. Plus, their road to their championship was not all that impressive. The Trailblazers were average at best, and playing with an injured Jusuf Nurkic. The Jazz were were a little bit better, but playing with a gimpy Rudy Gobert. Then, of course, the Spurs were up 25 points in game 1 in Golden State, and lost their best player and MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard to an injury, while already missing arguably their best player in Tony Parker. I suspect the series would have gone 6 games with Kawhi Leonard playing, and with Gregg Popovich's coaching prowess able to match the Warriors with creative adjustments. The Warriors most assuredly would have won the first two rounds anyway, likely both still sweeps, but the conference finals would have been much closer, and the road certainly would have been tougher. Part of the backing of the "best ever" narrative is predicated on the easy road the Warriors had getting there, while people forget the road wasn't easy just because of the talent of Golden State, but because of the lack of talent and/or injuries of their opponents. The Cavaliers are a quality opponent, but don't forget, they finished 2nd in the East for a reason. Their defense has been poor all season long, and stylistically, they are a bad match-up for Golden State whose strength is their offense. The argument that the Cleveland is a juggernaut team that the Warriors are handling is just not true. Not to mention that if not for a late-game meltdown in game 3, this series would have been tied 2-2. This series is a lot closer than let on.
One area where I can say the Warriors rank among the best ever is on the offensive end. They are one of the most dynamic and explosive offenses you will ever see. They are not a complete team though, at least comparing them to all-time great teams in terms of rebounding and defense. Their defense was exposed quite a bit in game 4, allowing an inconceivable 86 first half points, and almost 140 for the game. Their defense allowed an average of 105 ppg on the season. Fine for today's NBA, but not even close to some of the best defensive teams throughout history. They have one great individual defender in Draymond Green. Klay Thompson is as solid as they come as a defender, but the over-eagerness to fellate the Warriors has people using hyperbole and exaggerations when analyzing his defense. The same goes for Kevin Durant. He has improved dramatically as a defender, but he is still far from what I'd call "great." If I'm going to start throwing around "best ever" labels, then that team has to be great or close to great in every single facet of the game. The Warriors are not. Not that the level of Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers and Shaq's Lakers, Duncan's Spurs, among other historic teams.
Our younger generation prefers the sexier and sleeker tablet or Microsoft surface to a bigger and bulkier desktop that is infinitely more powerful in the same way that they prefer the eye candy of the Golden State Warriors over some superior, but less attractive teams of days past. Are they a sensational team? Of course. Best ever. Not so fast.
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