Following the Pentagon's declassification of videos revealing unknown flying objects, speculation has run rampant on whether or not alien life is indeed out there, and if aliens have ever came to planet earth. Following that up with intel which suggests future reveals may show materials found that are "not of this planet" and the madness has caused everyone's collective minds to run wild.
I will never dismiss the idea that aliens have been on planet earth or that UFOs were truly alien spacecrafts. However, I think it's unlikely, and I'll detail why I don't think it's likely aliens have ever been to planet earth and why I feel it's also likely they never will(if they are out there in the cosmos).
First off, scientists estimate that 95% of the observable universe is unreachable from planet earth and vice versa. The reason for this is because the universe is expanding. The farther space is from a given point, the faster it expands from that point. Get far enough from that point in space and it expands faster than the speed of light. As we currently stand, no form of matter can travel faster than the speed of light. However, space is not matter. Space does not follow the rules of matter. Space can expand as fast as it chooses to. So, based off this knowledge, scientists have estimated that 95% of the universe is unreachable from earth even if you could somehow impossibly reach the speed of light in space travel. It would be like driving a race car at 100 mph while the finish line is moving away from you at 150 mph. You will never be able to reach that finish line, and it will just increase its distance from you.
Factoring this in, I'm going to immediately remove 95% of the observable universe out of the equation. That leaves only 5% of that universe left with the potential for alien life that could find earth, lowering the likelihood right off the top. Now, let's try and get into the minds of an alien race. For starters, I think it's reasonable to assume that any alien species with the capability to reach distant planets possesses much greater technology than we humans have. With that assumption, if you are an alien race advanced enough to travel to distant planets and galaxies, hundreds, thousands, maybe even millions of light years away, wouldn't it make more logical sense to travel to a planet that could help advance you as a species than one which is behind you technologically?
Some may argue that humans are interesting creatures and we would be interesting to observe and study as a species to aliens. Let's explore that logic. As a comparison, if humans could travel to distant planets right now, would you want to travel to a planet that may have the key to extending human life, curing cancer, teaching us teleportation... or would you want to travel to a planet with dinosaur-like creatures to merely observe and then trek all the way across endless space back to your home planet? An advances species will almost assuredly prioritize logic and efficiency in anything they do, and any plan of travel through the universe is a safe bet to have something of significance gained for that species.
Others have speculated about sliens coming here and targeting our natural resources. Yes, planet earth is rich in resources. We have planet full of water and minerals. So does basically everywhere else in the universe, and hell, even our very own solar system. If aliens wanted to scour the universe for natural resources, they need only go to Jupiter's moon Europa which is believed to be rich in water, an infinite number of comets floating aimlessly out there, which also contain water. If it's minerals the aliens might want, the Kuiper Belt is full of asteroids far more rich in minerals than our planet. Oh, and they can do it without having to exterminate billions of living beings and engaging in planetary warfare with earth to boot.
So, we've eliminated the likelihood of specifically targeting earth for resources and for observation or advancement. What about accidentally stumbling upon earth during their travels? This I find the most unlikely of all. The possibility that a spacecraft would be traveling through a virtually infinite space and accidentally just finding earth is less likely than you finding one specific grain of sand in the entire Sahara Desert.
In general, I don't think our species or planet would have very much to offer an alien species that other planets and potentially living species can't. And it's an incredibly long way to travel for organisms that would likely want to be as efficient as possible. In fact, because of this, I think the most likely scenario if aliens do ever reach earth is doing so in the form of an advanced machine and artificial intelligence. Think about it. If you have the technology to travel insane distances and to other galaxies, you almost definitely have the technology to build advanced machines who can think, deduce, operate spacecrafts, interpret language, and communicate for them. Hell, we are well on our way of doing that and we haven't even landed humans on Mars yet. If you're going to be wasting ridiculously long periods of time in space travel, have machines, which can theoretically live forever, do it for you, while the living organisms can spend their time doing far more important things.
If one day we do, finally, do get a confirmed indisputable UFO landing on earth's soil for all to see, expect that what steps out of the cockpit isn't a big-headed, big-eyed looking freak; or massive creatures with long faces, sharp teeth, long spear-like tails that bleed acid. Expect advanced machines to step out, and probably greet us kindly, as any advanced species would know that no reasonable communication is made through hostility. Hell, they may even look like us, at least on the outside, to make us less fearful of them.
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