Thursday, May 10, 2018

Sixers Semi-Finals Thoughts, Odds and Ends and Final Thoughts

Many a tale end in poetic fashion. A special way everything gets tied together in complete irony. Quite often these conclusions are uplifting, but sometimes they end painfully. For the Sixers, their season's end was the latter. The Sixers' season had that painfully poetic and ironic twist at the end in that their season ended pretty much the same way it began. Their inability to close out games, their inability to get one key stop or key bucket down the stretch to hang onto a lead, and their inability to prevent critical mistakes. These reared their ugly heads one final time in game 5 in Boston(City of Losers). The Sixers had a 4 point lead with roughly 1:30 left in the game and like they have many times this season, failed to seal the deal. JJ Redick, one of the NBA's all-time 3 point shooting greats had a chance to put the game away with a wide open 3 pointer on the left wing with the Sixers up 2, a shot that clanged short. Had it went in, the Sixers would have found themselves up 5 with a little over a minute to go in the game; a lead probably even they wouldn't let slip away. They couldn't get big stops on defense when it mattered. Joel Embiid(who played a great game) couldn't box out tiny Marcus Smart to prevent a put-back to tie the game with under a minute to go, Dario Saric found himself posting up in the paint instead of the 7'2, 280 pound Joel Embiid on the team's most important offensive possession of the season, and Embiid couldn't make a tough contested basket from right underneath the hoop on stiff role player Aaron Baynes to tie the game late. Joel was fouled on the play, but that is still a basket that with his ability he has to convert. These kinds of problems plagued the Sixers all season long. It felt like a distant memory after the season-ending 16 game winning streak, and defeat of the Miami Heat in 5 games in the first round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, like a virus, sometimes it lies dormant, only to re-surface at the worst possible time.

Sure, the Sixers are a young team. The Celtics are too. The bottom line is their players handled the big pressure moments much better than the Sixers did. I have said all season that composure was one of the Sixers' greatest issues. Despite all their flaws, ie  their lack of isolation players, their lack of shot creators, their lack of depth with defensive wing players; they could have very easily won this series 4-1. Boneheaded mistakes and lack of basketball IQ bit them until the very end, some of which were from veteran players. I have no concerns about the Sixers' young core. They will improve and learn from these experiences. That said, there's no denying that just this time around, the moment was too big for the Sixers. They had the more talented roster, and they didn't play to their capabilities for almost the entire playoffs. The Sixers actually didn't play very well against Miami either, but their talent was just so far superior that their shortcomings didn't end up mattering much in the end.

This Celtics team is not very good. Despite the apologists out there pumping up the Celtics like they are the most underrated team in the history of sports, without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward they are likely a team that finishes barely above .500. The propaganda is strong in the media and on social media for this organization and many people have been brainwashed into thinking that they are better than they are to maintain this fictional narrative of complete and total denial and delusion. Keep in mind, this is the same team that needed 7 games to squeak by the middling Milwaukee Bucks. A Bucks team the Sixers crushed by 30 points in the final game of the regular season. The difference was, at home, the Bucks played with a fire, intensity, and poise the Sixers did not.  The Bucks got key contributions from role players like Thon Maker, when many of the Sixers role players were completely invisible. Key contributors during the season like Robert Covington, Marco Belinelli, and Ersan Ilyasova looked like they started their vacation early. To win in the playoffs, role players need to step up, and the Sixers just didn't get the production they needed from their ancillary pieces. This is not to absolve the cornerstone players of blame. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons could and should have been better. Especially Simmons. However, Simmons is still a rookie. Even as their second best player, it's hard to completely knock a rookie for struggling in a playoff series more than a veteran who has been there before, even if those veterans are less talented. Dario Saric needs to be mentioned here as well. As great as he finished the series, The Homie gave very little in the first 3 games. Who knows, maybe if he played better, this series would have been 2-2 headed back to Boston(City of Losers) instead of 3-1. In the end, every player on the team had their shortcomings that hurt them in this series, sans maybe TJ McConnell who was brilliant. But most of those players had their moments where they shined, even if not consistently. I'm most disappointed in the complete zeroes who gave nothing for most of the entire series. Robert, Marco, and Ersan, I'm looking at you. You had one job to do. Come in, hit a few shots, and maybe play a little D, and you guys couldn't even do that. You were the epitome of useless, and you let your team down.

Overall, it was a very successful season with a frustrating end. I think it's fair to say the Sixers may have overachieved in the regular season, but underachieved in the postseason. They still have a more promising future than any team in the eastern conference, as they have the two most promising players in the eastern conference. At the end of the day, the NBA is about the players more than any sport, and I don't see that ever changing. For year one of the Sixers' ascent, what they accomplished this season was pretty incredible, albeit ultimately ending with a bad taste in our mouths. Now, we can officially say it is time for the Sixers to make that next big leap and start making moves that will position them to compete with the NBA's elite, and eventually win an NBA title.

Here are some random thoughts I have on the Sixers and their summer months ahead:

1. I'm sorry RoCo fans, but Robert Covington has to go. I get that you have a special affinity for him. He was one of Hinkie's guys, an original 'Process' guy. A diamond in the rough that found a home here in Philly. He made a career from the ashes, and I'm proud of him for doing so. He brought a lot to the team since he's been here. However, he's not a starter on a team that has aspirations of playing deep into May. He can't finish at the rim, he's a poor ball handler, he can't create his own shot, and he's one of the most inconsistent shooters I can ever remember. Winning in the NBA playoffs is about relying on guys you can count on game-in, game-out. Guys you know what you are getting, and you pencil them in for a specific role. The problem with Covington is you never know what you are going to get on any given night. You can get the "5 of 7 from 3 point land Covington." Or you can get the "0 for 8 Covington" from downtown. The former seems to be less common these days, so when the great games are less common and less pronounced, the negatives start to outweigh the positives. His low basketball IQ has really hurt the Sixers in key stretches, and in the playoffs where you play better coached teams and tougher defenses, this makes his propensity to commit these mistakes more likely, and in closer games, much more impactful. Robert Covington is a bench player with the contract of a starter. The Sixers may miss his defense somewhat, but I think they can find someone who can replace his defense on a much cheaper contract. He's a good defender, not a great defender. I'm not getting rid of him for a bag of peanuts, but I don't think the Sixers will have to. There will be a taker out there for him, and the Sixers would be wise to jump on this opportunity.

2. Landing one(or more) of LeBron James, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is critical. The Sixers will not have cap room forever. Eventually their young core will need new contracts and their cap space will be self-engulfed. In the NBA you can go over the cap re-signing your own guys, but can't go over the cap signing players from other teams. The Sixers need to capitalize on this opportunity now by convincing another star player to join a promising Sixers team. Remember, they are building a team to beat the Golden State Warriors, not the Boston Celtics. To beat the Warriors, you need the talent to match Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and their deep roster of accomplished veterans. As promising as Embiid and Simmons are, just having those two is not going to get them to that level.

3. Put every resource into fixing Simmons' and Fultz's jumpers. I think Fultz is an entirely different situation than Simmons. Fultz seems to be more mental and he showed in college he has a natural shooting touch that has the potential to be elite. Ben Simmons has never shown that kind of potential as a shooter at any point. That said, regardless of the cause, the Sixers need their coaches and training staff to work with these guys all summer. Simmons needs to return in October, not as an elite shooter, but as an improved shooter. A guy who can hit a 15 footer with some level of consistency, and eventually over the months and years, work his way out to 3 point land. Markelle needs to display most or all of his shooting capabilities that he showed at Washington. The Sixers need the player they drafted in June, not the one he became in September. They traded up to get that Markelle Fultz, and that is the Markelle Fultz they need. I still believe in him, and I have not given up on that trade like some. He can still be a 20+ppg scorer in this league. He's a crafty player with iso skills, can finish at the rim, and score from all over the court. A Fultz rebirth is exactly what the Sixers need for next season.

4. Joel Embiid needs to spend most of his time working on his post game and all aspects of it. Handling double and triple teams in the post, passing out of the post, finishing above defenders in the post, going up strong in the post, post moves, and drawing fouls. Maybe most importantly, he needs to work on his lower body strength. For a man of his massive size and stature, he sometimes struggled to establish himself in the paint and get push on defenders when he needed to. Maybe all of his foot and leg injuries hampered his ability to develop his lower half, but that needs to be a priority this summer.

5. They need to figure out how they are going to fill out their bench and depth positions. JJ Redick, Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova, and Amir Johnson are all going to be free agents. That is basically your entire bench plus one key starter. Most, if not all, are not going to be back next season. If you spend all your cap dollars on a max level free agent, you won't have the money to do everything you desire in free agency for your bench. Bryan Colangelo will need to get creative and explore trades, try to convince free agents to sign at discounted prices, and use draft picks to fill out the depth positions with upgrades. It will be a tall task, no doubt.

The future is still incredibly bright, and one of the most important summers in the history of the franchise will soon be upon us. Bryan Colangelo has his work cut out for him. Let's see what he's got, he's been playing for this for quite a while.

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