It is a common notion that the larger number of draft picks a team has, the greater the chance you have of getting good players based on pure odds. This logic is universally accepted as truth by many NFL writers, reporters, and analysts. On the surface it sounds like it makes perfect sense. It's kind of like lottery balls, the more you get, the greater odds you have to win the lottery. Except, it's a lot more complicated and nuanced than that.
The belief that the more draft picks a team has, the greater chance they have of getting good players is based on the assumption that all picks have equal value--a 50% chance a pick hits, and a 50% chance it doesn't. Draft picks don't work like that. The NFL Draft is, obviously, 7 rounds, and each round historically has a decrease in a pick's hit rate with each round. The difference in hit rate from round 1 to round 7 is significant. Draft pick value is not uniform. The idea that you have a greater chance to score on a draft pick is not based on how many picks you have, but rather what round those picks reside in.
Most often, the majority of a team's draft picks fall in rounds 5-7, due to the NFL's compensatory picks system. So when you have a team that, say, has ten draft picks, and six of those draft picks are in rounds 5-7, being that the last three rounds have a much smaller hit rate than the first three, your percentages in hitting on those draft picks is still rather low. So, how important was having ten picks really? I'd rather have, say, six total picks in rounds 1-4 than ten total picks, where six of those are in rounds 5-7. Again, it's about what rounds the picks exist, not how many you own.
Let's dive further. How many 6th and 7th round picks even make their respective teams out of training camp? With undrafted free agency being bigger now than ever, quite often those undrafted players beat out 6th and 7th rounders in training camp. You'll often see teams take "project" players in the 6th or 7th rounds and stash them on IR with injuries, and take more "ready-now" players in undrafted free agency. 6th and 7th rounders are usually shots in the dark. A portion of them don't even make the team out of camp. The Eagles cut 5th rounder Clayton Thorson out of training camp in 2019. So immediately, out of whatever draft haul each team has, you are going to skim at least one or two players off the top of that haul by the time training camp is over. So that ten player draft class may immediately be cut down to eight in just a few months. And of those remaining eight players, how many of them on average will become surefire NFL starters for the next 5-7 years for your team? Well, the average NFL career length is estimated to be about 3.3 years. Chances are one, maybe two players at most out of any draft class become anything worth a damn at the NFL level.
So, at the end of the day, if a ten player draft class is going to be cut down to eight or nine just in a few months and leave you with one or two players being long-term high quality NFL starters for your team, how important was drafting that many players in the first place? The real value in the NFL draft isn't in overall numbers, but making each pick count and maximizing the chances on hitting each pick. Even though no pick is a guarantee, it's still undeniably true that the higher you pick in any draft, the greater chance you have to land a quality player with that pick. Where the variables come into play is how good each team is at evaluating talent. Whether a team has a seven player draft class or a ten player draft class, they likely will have the same number of long-term high caliber starters out of those classes. Probably two at most.
People blame the Eagles' recent draft failures on the lack of overall selections in recent years stemming from the Carson Wentz trade. This is faulty logic. The Eagles didn't struggle in the draft because they lacked the overall number of draft picks, they struggled because the picks they did make were poor. The opportunities were there, they just missed, and not in late rounds, but in earlier rounds. In 2017, the Eagles had the opportunity to trade up for Dalvin Cook and land a franchise RB. Instead, they chose to sit tight and draft Sidney Jones coming off a serious injury. In that loaded RB class, the Eagles ended up waiting until the 4th round to take the slight Donnel Pumphrey to address the RB position. In 2019, the Eagles had the opportunity to take the highly-touted DK Metcalf in round 2, and instead opted to take JJ Arceda-Whiteside, a player very few had pegged to the Eagles prior to the draft. Or they could have traded up a couple spots to grab AJ Brown, a player who was a beast at Ole Miss. The fact that they missed in 2017 with Cook and Pumphrey, caused a ripple effect, which forced them to have to select a RB in 2019 early, which, in turn prohibited them from doubling up on WR in round 2. None of these gaffes are in hindsight. These were players your average fan and pundit were coveting before the draft, who the Eagles passed on... because of their inability to evaluate talent. Had they just made a few better selections, no one would be talking about their canyon-sized holes at WR right now, and just the same, no one would be talking about how trading up for Wentz in 2016 damaged their ability to construct a roster with a lack of draft picks.
Let's look at Eagles recent history for some context:
The two largest draft classes the Eagles have had in the last ten years were the 2010 and 2011 classes. Those had thirteen and eleven picks respectively.
The 2010 and 2011 class each had one Pro Bowl caliber player in it. The rest were full of a bunch of total crap, and some okay guys in each class like Nate Allen, Riley Cooper, Dion Lewis.
However, the 2009 and the 2013 classes, each had only eight selections. Those classes had two Pro Bowl caliber players from each(Maclin, McCoy, Johnson, Ertz) and 2013 had Bennie Logan as well, who was a decent player for the Eagles.
Now, this is obviously a small sample size, but I implore anyone who has the time to go through the entire NFL history and give me tangible proof that larger draft classes are noticeably more productive than smaller ones. I don't think you can.
At the end of the day, draft success will vary due to countless
circumstances. But if I'm the Eagles, and I've struggled to draft
certain positions like WR, having only drafted one starting caliber
player in over 10 years(the last being Jeremy Maclin in 2009) I'm
focusing on having greater chances to hit the picks I do make, even if
it means less of them, than having a large quantity overall.
Monday, April 13, 2020
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Howie Roseman and the Eagles need bite the bullet and trade up in the draft for a WR.
When I was younger and totally broke, I often found myself struggling to make ends meet. I was earning income through eBay and selling anything I could afford to pawn off. Sometimes the decision was a difficult one: sell something of value for less money now, to secure that sale; or let it sit up on the market for a while hoping some day you might get full value for it. When you're desperate for something, maximizing value is less vital and it's about doing anything you can to survive. By leaving that extra money on the table, you are essentially buying short-term certainty with that money.
Howie Roseman and the Eagles find themselves in a similar position. No, they aren't broke monetarily, and are well-off financially. They do, however, find themselves in dire straits at the wide receiver position. Their franchise QB may have a shorter shelf life than most with his injury history, has played with underwhelming weapons at the position for 3 out of his 4 NFL seasons, and, frankly, after putting his body on the line multiple times already, the front office owes it to him to reward him with some new toys this Spring.
Draft picks are investments. You're investing capital... in this case, draft capital. And with any investment there is always risk assessment. The Eagles have put themselves into a position where they can't miss on a wide receiver selection in the draft. Think of them as one of those bomb squad guys on TV who cracks open the bomb with the countdown timer, and as the clock hits 10 seconds they need to cut the right wire or everyone is dead. If the Eagles pick the wrong receiver in this draft, it will set them back years. Their cap room going forward is going to be limited, so they won't be able to address it in free agency. They will need to start replacing other players soon like Jason Kelce, Brandon Graham, Rodney McLeod, possibly Derek Barnett. They can't afford to keep investing and missing on the wide receiver position every single year. It is vital they make these draft picks count.
This is why it is absolutely imperative the Eagles trade up in the draft for either CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, or Henry Ruggs. Just like my situation with eBay that I mentioned earlier, the Eagles by trading up will be sacrificing a little value for short-term certainty. By trading up and using an extra draft pick to do it, they are essentially "buying certainty." It's an investment they need to make. Sure, anyone they select at 21(or later if they trade down) could wind up being better players than those three. But are you prepared to take that risk? And maybe a better question is: are you comfortable with this front office and scouting department, who have struggled mightily to evaluate the position, making that call? Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs have significantly low bust potential. They come from big-time programs with tremendous coaching. They play against excellent competition in their conferences. They have all the physical tools you'd want from a WR. They all are great route runners, they have good hands, they are instinctive, they all have speed(to varying degrees between them). Yes, it would be a blow to sacrifice a 2nd round pick to move up and buy that certainty, but when you're in as dire a position the Eagles are in, it's something they have to do.
Otherwise, you'll have a 27 year old QB with a significant injury history, scratching and clawing for every point yet again, wasting vital years of his prime, in an offensive league where they struggled on offense for the last two seasons, trying to compete with better and more explosive teams without the weapons to do it. Kansas City showed us in the Super Bowl it's an offensive league now. They beat one of the NFL's top defenses with great QB and receiver play. The NFL is a copycat league, and Howie Roseman needs to secure Wentz the weapons he needs now and worry about the long-term costs of that later. Their survival depends on it.
Howie Roseman and the Eagles find themselves in a similar position. No, they aren't broke monetarily, and are well-off financially. They do, however, find themselves in dire straits at the wide receiver position. Their franchise QB may have a shorter shelf life than most with his injury history, has played with underwhelming weapons at the position for 3 out of his 4 NFL seasons, and, frankly, after putting his body on the line multiple times already, the front office owes it to him to reward him with some new toys this Spring.
Draft picks are investments. You're investing capital... in this case, draft capital. And with any investment there is always risk assessment. The Eagles have put themselves into a position where they can't miss on a wide receiver selection in the draft. Think of them as one of those bomb squad guys on TV who cracks open the bomb with the countdown timer, and as the clock hits 10 seconds they need to cut the right wire or everyone is dead. If the Eagles pick the wrong receiver in this draft, it will set them back years. Their cap room going forward is going to be limited, so they won't be able to address it in free agency. They will need to start replacing other players soon like Jason Kelce, Brandon Graham, Rodney McLeod, possibly Derek Barnett. They can't afford to keep investing and missing on the wide receiver position every single year. It is vital they make these draft picks count.
This is why it is absolutely imperative the Eagles trade up in the draft for either CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, or Henry Ruggs. Just like my situation with eBay that I mentioned earlier, the Eagles by trading up will be sacrificing a little value for short-term certainty. By trading up and using an extra draft pick to do it, they are essentially "buying certainty." It's an investment they need to make. Sure, anyone they select at 21(or later if they trade down) could wind up being better players than those three. But are you prepared to take that risk? And maybe a better question is: are you comfortable with this front office and scouting department, who have struggled mightily to evaluate the position, making that call? Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs have significantly low bust potential. They come from big-time programs with tremendous coaching. They play against excellent competition in their conferences. They have all the physical tools you'd want from a WR. They all are great route runners, they have good hands, they are instinctive, they all have speed(to varying degrees between them). Yes, it would be a blow to sacrifice a 2nd round pick to move up and buy that certainty, but when you're in as dire a position the Eagles are in, it's something they have to do.
Otherwise, you'll have a 27 year old QB with a significant injury history, scratching and clawing for every point yet again, wasting vital years of his prime, in an offensive league where they struggled on offense for the last two seasons, trying to compete with better and more explosive teams without the weapons to do it. Kansas City showed us in the Super Bowl it's an offensive league now. They beat one of the NFL's top defenses with great QB and receiver play. The NFL is a copycat league, and Howie Roseman needs to secure Wentz the weapons he needs now and worry about the long-term costs of that later. Their survival depends on it.
Monday, January 6, 2020
Howie Roseman and the Eagles front office can't repeat 2019's mistake in 2020
Since this blog is quite highbrow, I'm going to start this off by using a philosophical quote: "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it." In 2019, coming off a disappointing 2018 season, the Eagles mired in mediocrity for 3/4ths of the season. Their offense was bland, ineffective, and predictable. Carson Wentz, still nursing himself back to 100% from injury, regressed. Several other skill position players who were vital to winning a Super Bowl the season prior also regressed. There was very little, if any, developmental progression of anyone on the roster. Even on the defensive side of the ball, we saw a widespread lack of fundamentals, execution, and production. Routinely giving up 3rd and longs, and even 4th and longs all season. However, and to their credit, the team rebounded with Nick Foles at the helm in December, finishing the season strong, making the playoffs, and coming one fluky dropped pass away from potentially having another NFC Championship Game appearance.
In the Spring of 2019, Howie Roseman and the front office approached the offseason like the prior 3 months of football before December never happened. They allowed recency bias to cloud their view of the shortcomings of the roster, and they spent almost the entire offseason making minimal upgrades, and amassing compensatory picks. Several quality players were available in free agency and on the trade market(even into the regular season) that Howie Roseman flat-out passed on. Guys like Jadeveon Clowney, who played a significant role(dirty or not) in ending the Eagles' season on Sunday, and Devante Parker, who was available at the trade deadline and went on to have an incredibly strong finish to the season. They are just two names of many. They allowed one hot December month in 2018 and built-in injury excuses to influence them into ignoring the many deficiencies that were so clearly apparent. Not just personnel deficiencies, but on the coaching staff as well.
Now, enter 2019 and once again, for 3/4ths of the season, the same problems we all saw in 2018 were once again front and center. A poor, unimaginative, bland offense. Poor execution and preparation on both sides of the ball. Widespread player regression and lack of development across most of the roster. And just like in 2018, the team finished with a strong month of December to once again get the team into the playoffs. The narratives had already started.
"This proves Wentz doesn't need great players around him to succeed."
"See? Groh proved he can really coach, people gave up on him too quickly."
"The Eagles have a lot more talent on this team than we thought, we just didn't give it a chance."
Keep in mind, this winning streak was against the basement dwellers of the NFL. And the Eagles didn't exactly dominate these opponents either. In two of the games, the Eagles needed to fight tooth and nail to storm comebacks against the lowly Redskins and Giants. Credit them for making the playoffs, but doing so in a horrendous division is not exactly a premium accomplishment. Even with the injuries.
So, sitting here in 2020, we find ourselves in a very similar position as we were in 2019. A flawed team that was mediocre for 75% of the season, finished with a hot month and made the playoffs under dire circumstances. In 2019, Howie and co. decided that all was right in the world, and minor tweaks would suffice in getting the Eagles back to the promised land. And as we saw for the majority of this season, that assessment was very wrong. Let's all hope that Howie doesn't make the same mistake this year that he did last year. He needs to evaluate the season as a whole and not fixate on one hot December month, which is an incredibly small sample. He needs to look at two full seasons of regression, poor execution, lack of player development, and stagnant offenses. He needs to look at a medical and training staff that has a laundry list of severe injuries every season. He needs to evaluate it all, because it's obvious that the mystique of the Super Bowl team has worn off and this organization needs a serious overhaul in personnel and coaching. And if he doesn't, it's time for him to be re-evaluated by Jeffrey Lurie. This is the most important offseason in recent memory, and it's not one the Eagles can afford to mess up.
In the Spring of 2019, Howie Roseman and the front office approached the offseason like the prior 3 months of football before December never happened. They allowed recency bias to cloud their view of the shortcomings of the roster, and they spent almost the entire offseason making minimal upgrades, and amassing compensatory picks. Several quality players were available in free agency and on the trade market(even into the regular season) that Howie Roseman flat-out passed on. Guys like Jadeveon Clowney, who played a significant role(dirty or not) in ending the Eagles' season on Sunday, and Devante Parker, who was available at the trade deadline and went on to have an incredibly strong finish to the season. They are just two names of many. They allowed one hot December month in 2018 and built-in injury excuses to influence them into ignoring the many deficiencies that were so clearly apparent. Not just personnel deficiencies, but on the coaching staff as well.
Now, enter 2019 and once again, for 3/4ths of the season, the same problems we all saw in 2018 were once again front and center. A poor, unimaginative, bland offense. Poor execution and preparation on both sides of the ball. Widespread player regression and lack of development across most of the roster. And just like in 2018, the team finished with a strong month of December to once again get the team into the playoffs. The narratives had already started.
"This proves Wentz doesn't need great players around him to succeed."
"See? Groh proved he can really coach, people gave up on him too quickly."
"The Eagles have a lot more talent on this team than we thought, we just didn't give it a chance."
Keep in mind, this winning streak was against the basement dwellers of the NFL. And the Eagles didn't exactly dominate these opponents either. In two of the games, the Eagles needed to fight tooth and nail to storm comebacks against the lowly Redskins and Giants. Credit them for making the playoffs, but doing so in a horrendous division is not exactly a premium accomplishment. Even with the injuries.
So, sitting here in 2020, we find ourselves in a very similar position as we were in 2019. A flawed team that was mediocre for 75% of the season, finished with a hot month and made the playoffs under dire circumstances. In 2019, Howie and co. decided that all was right in the world, and minor tweaks would suffice in getting the Eagles back to the promised land. And as we saw for the majority of this season, that assessment was very wrong. Let's all hope that Howie doesn't make the same mistake this year that he did last year. He needs to evaluate the season as a whole and not fixate on one hot December month, which is an incredibly small sample. He needs to look at two full seasons of regression, poor execution, lack of player development, and stagnant offenses. He needs to look at a medical and training staff that has a laundry list of severe injuries every season. He needs to evaluate it all, because it's obvious that the mystique of the Super Bowl team has worn off and this organization needs a serious overhaul in personnel and coaching. And if he doesn't, it's time for him to be re-evaluated by Jeffrey Lurie. This is the most important offseason in recent memory, and it's not one the Eagles can afford to mess up.
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
If The Process fails to deliver a championship to Philadelphia, the summer of 2019 may be the main culprit
Game 7. Sixers vs Raptors. Two titans trading blows and playing their best basketball of the season going toe to toe in what could be argued as the most compelling playoff series of those playoffs. The Sixers took the NBA champs to literally after the final buzzer, as Kawhi Leonard's shot took what felt like about 20 minutes to complete its 4 bounces around the rim before dropping and sending the Sixers home in excruciating fashion. No one played the future NBA champions tougher that season. Not even the 3 time champion Warriors. Sure, the Warriors suffered injuries, but even still, they have a proven championship pedigree and elite level coaching.
One could argue that had Embiid not gotten sick before game 4, the Sixers would have bested Toronto, being that Embiid played his worst game of the playoffs that night, and the Sixers still hung in there and almost beat the Raptors to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Instead, it went down to the final buzzer of game 7. This is the closest the Sixers had been to a parade down Broad St. in over 35 years. Yes, even closer than 2001, being that as amazing of a story as those Iverson's Sixers were, everyone knew there was no way they were taking down the dynastic powerhouse Lakers in those Finals. But in the 2018-19 Playoffs? The Sixers truly had a legitimate shot to go all the way for the first time in over 3 decades.
Kawhi was probably going to leave Toronto to bolt to the Western Conference and all the Sixers needed to do was run it back and use their resources to bolster their bench and they could have taken another stab at it in the '19-20 season with the Warriors decimated with injuries and Durant leaving for Brooklyn. They showed last season the formula worked. They could score with anyone given their shot creation and go-to scorer with Butler, they had floor spacing with Redick, they had their two young stars in Embiid and Simmons, and had a very good 3rd or 4th piece in Harris to carry the load on nights when the other guys don't have it. It worked so well in the playoffs that they played the NBA champions tougher than anybody.
Yet, the Sixers' front office inexplicably decided to course correct and head in a different direction. They decided to sacrifice shot creation and elite perimeter shooting in the modern NBA in favor of an aging and declining big man in Al Horford. The sell? "Al Horford will give the Sixers the best backup center in the league on nights where Joel can't play! And when Embiid has to come out of the game, you simply slide Horford to the 5 and you don't miss a beat!" In other words, the Sixers' front office decided that a glorified backup center was a more promising path to a parade than shot creation and shooting in a modern NBA.
Elton Brand, the general manager of the Sixers was hired with no NBA general managing experience. He worked for the Delaware Blue Coats, and was hired as the Sixers' GM following a many weeks-long sham of a search that involved owner Joshua Harris mandating that any candidates retain this incredible personnel department structure that the great Bryan Colangelo constructed. I'll give Brand credit. He traded for Jimmy Butler when he was available and got him at a very good price, sacrificing only Dario Saric and Robert Covington in the deal. But since? He traded a significant haul for Tobias Harris, emptying their "war chest" of assets on a good player, but not a great player. He was unable to land bench pieces in the summer to bolster his playoff roster. He sold 2nd round picks in the draft and telegraphed his love for Matisse Thybulle allowing Danny Ainge to select him and snooker the Sixers into giving them another draft pick. And he decided to reroute a ship headed toward a Larry O'Brien trophy to bring in Al Horford and Josh Richardson.
The Sixers on January 1st, 2020 are currently the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference. Sure, there is a lot of time left in the season, but their offense has mightily struggled and other teams in the conference are better than expected. Who could have seen this coming when you allow such a massive chunk of last season's offense that took Toronto to game 7 go to other teams? How did they expect an offense without shot creation and perimeter shooting to score? If the Sixers brass decided that Jimmy Butler's future in Philly was absolutely untenable, and Redick's defense was too much to try and cover up, that's fine, but you have to replace that offense. They didn't. They added no shot creation and no elite perimeter shooting, and constructed a 90's style roster expected to compete in 2019-20.
Being the 6th seed should be a bit of a surprise. Their record and the way they're playing? That shouldn't be. The Sixers were always destined to be a good team, not a great team with their obvious flaws. The scary part is that they now may have one of the most undesirable contracts in all the NBA and are tied to Al Horford's number to another 3 years after this one. They no longer have a war chest of assets, and they have no young and attractive trade chips to pry disgruntled or available stars away from other rosters. Barring Elton Brand morphing into Elton Blaine overnight and working some black magic, when he's shown none of that savvy or foresightedness to this point, this is the roster the Sixers are going to be stuck with for the foreseeable future, give or take. A roster that has shown likely not good enough to give Philadelphia and Sixers fans their first parade in over 35 years. If "The Process" ends without a title, we'll all look back in the summer of 2019 where the plan sprung a leak and doomed their championship hopes going forward.
One could argue that had Embiid not gotten sick before game 4, the Sixers would have bested Toronto, being that Embiid played his worst game of the playoffs that night, and the Sixers still hung in there and almost beat the Raptors to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Instead, it went down to the final buzzer of game 7. This is the closest the Sixers had been to a parade down Broad St. in over 35 years. Yes, even closer than 2001, being that as amazing of a story as those Iverson's Sixers were, everyone knew there was no way they were taking down the dynastic powerhouse Lakers in those Finals. But in the 2018-19 Playoffs? The Sixers truly had a legitimate shot to go all the way for the first time in over 3 decades.
Kawhi was probably going to leave Toronto to bolt to the Western Conference and all the Sixers needed to do was run it back and use their resources to bolster their bench and they could have taken another stab at it in the '19-20 season with the Warriors decimated with injuries and Durant leaving for Brooklyn. They showed last season the formula worked. They could score with anyone given their shot creation and go-to scorer with Butler, they had floor spacing with Redick, they had their two young stars in Embiid and Simmons, and had a very good 3rd or 4th piece in Harris to carry the load on nights when the other guys don't have it. It worked so well in the playoffs that they played the NBA champions tougher than anybody.
Yet, the Sixers' front office inexplicably decided to course correct and head in a different direction. They decided to sacrifice shot creation and elite perimeter shooting in the modern NBA in favor of an aging and declining big man in Al Horford. The sell? "Al Horford will give the Sixers the best backup center in the league on nights where Joel can't play! And when Embiid has to come out of the game, you simply slide Horford to the 5 and you don't miss a beat!" In other words, the Sixers' front office decided that a glorified backup center was a more promising path to a parade than shot creation and shooting in a modern NBA.
Elton Brand, the general manager of the Sixers was hired with no NBA general managing experience. He worked for the Delaware Blue Coats, and was hired as the Sixers' GM following a many weeks-long sham of a search that involved owner Joshua Harris mandating that any candidates retain this incredible personnel department structure that the great Bryan Colangelo constructed. I'll give Brand credit. He traded for Jimmy Butler when he was available and got him at a very good price, sacrificing only Dario Saric and Robert Covington in the deal. But since? He traded a significant haul for Tobias Harris, emptying their "war chest" of assets on a good player, but not a great player. He was unable to land bench pieces in the summer to bolster his playoff roster. He sold 2nd round picks in the draft and telegraphed his love for Matisse Thybulle allowing Danny Ainge to select him and snooker the Sixers into giving them another draft pick. And he decided to reroute a ship headed toward a Larry O'Brien trophy to bring in Al Horford and Josh Richardson.
The Sixers on January 1st, 2020 are currently the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference. Sure, there is a lot of time left in the season, but their offense has mightily struggled and other teams in the conference are better than expected. Who could have seen this coming when you allow such a massive chunk of last season's offense that took Toronto to game 7 go to other teams? How did they expect an offense without shot creation and perimeter shooting to score? If the Sixers brass decided that Jimmy Butler's future in Philly was absolutely untenable, and Redick's defense was too much to try and cover up, that's fine, but you have to replace that offense. They didn't. They added no shot creation and no elite perimeter shooting, and constructed a 90's style roster expected to compete in 2019-20.
Being the 6th seed should be a bit of a surprise. Their record and the way they're playing? That shouldn't be. The Sixers were always destined to be a good team, not a great team with their obvious flaws. The scary part is that they now may have one of the most undesirable contracts in all the NBA and are tied to Al Horford's number to another 3 years after this one. They no longer have a war chest of assets, and they have no young and attractive trade chips to pry disgruntled or available stars away from other rosters. Barring Elton Brand morphing into Elton Blaine overnight and working some black magic, when he's shown none of that savvy or foresightedness to this point, this is the roster the Sixers are going to be stuck with for the foreseeable future, give or take. A roster that has shown likely not good enough to give Philadelphia and Sixers fans their first parade in over 35 years. If "The Process" ends without a title, we'll all look back in the summer of 2019 where the plan sprung a leak and doomed their championship hopes going forward.
Monday, November 18, 2019
Carson Wentz isn't Aaron Rodgers. And that's okay. The Eagles can still win Super Bowls with him.
Almost all QBs in the NFL, even the great ones, need things around them to be operating like a well-oiled machine for them to play at their best. If you take away certain weapons, if you take away an offensive coach they have a rapport with, their performance can regress in a hurry. This is normal. This is the way things work in the NFL. However, every so often a QB will come along who is so special, that he can perform at an elite level despite any condition around him. Take Aaron Rodgers. The guy has been amazing no matter who he has to throw the ball to. Take away Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Mike McCarthy, Joe Philbin; have him play with hardly any running game to speak of for the majority of his career and he will still look incredible every single time you tune in to watch.
However, 99% of QBs who play in the NFL, even the good ones or elite ones are not Aaron Rodgers. If you take give them inadequate coaching or weapons, they will not always look elite. Take a look at Matt Ryan before and after he played under Kyle Shanahan. The difference is significant. Before Shanahan got there, Matt Ryan was a good QB and sometimes even bordering on elite, but he never took that jump into the top 5 where many expected him to be when he came out of Boston College. Bring in Kyle Shanahan and in 2016 he has an incredible season winning the MVP with a 38-7 TD-INT ratio, throwing for almost 5,000 yards with 117.1 passer rating and coming within a hair's length of winning a Super Bowl. Granted, in 2018 without Shanahan, he had an excellent statistical season as well, but the Falcons were poor that season with a horrendous defense, and Atlanta was having to play from behind for much of the season, inflating Ryan's numbers. Regardless, Matt Ryan was the best he has ever been under his career, playing under one of the league's brightest offensive minds, and playing with a plethora of elite weapons like Julio Jones, one of the greatest WRs the NFL has ever seen. Once Kyle Shanahan left, the Falcons struggled mightily to get Julio the ball in the end zone, a feat considered unfathomable by any football fan with a brain.
Nick Foles, a guy we know very well in this city, posted a 27-2 TD-INT ratio under Chip Kelly, and led the Eagles to the playoffs with elite gamebreaking weapons like DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy. Once he got traded to the Rams, he regressed so badly under Jeff Fisher and Mike Groh that he contemplated retirement. He made his way to Kansas City under Andy Reid, and eventually back to the Eagles under the trio of Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, and John DeFilippo, and the rest is history.
Rayne Prescott struggled mightily with the Cowboys last season, until Dallas made a bold trade for WR Amari Cooper, and since then he has rebounded nicely and found himself a nice little niche actually occasionally looking like an NFL QB every once in a while, when league sources told me prior to that, the Cowboys were considering moving him to RB to back up Ezekiel Elliott, and drafting another QB in the 2019 draft.
Most QBs are not Aaron Rodgers. They can't always thrive under not-so-premium conditions. And that's okay. Carson Wentz is one of those QBs. He may not be one of the most talented QBs who has ever lived, but he is still pretty special. And simply because he can't carry a team on his back with arguably the least talented and productive group of WRs in the NFL, and a clueless coaching staff which includes Mike Groh--a man who, in part, almost forced Nick Foles into retirement, doesn't mean he can't be great when the problems are fixed around him, and you can't win Super Bowls with him. As we saw with Nick Foles, he was exactly the same way, and the city of Philadelphia won our first and only Super Bowl with him playing under optimal conditions, with the perfect blend of coaching, weapons, and elite offensive line giving him time to throw.
Does Carson have his flaws? Sure. Does he have the athleticism and physical ability to be elite if you surround him with quality coaching and pass-catching weapons? Absolutely. The Eagles can start next offseason by bringing in some fresh eyes from outside the organization, to help innovate and getting Carson to once again play to his strengths. Much like he did in 2017 with Reich and DeFilippo. And Howie Roseman needs to do his job, much like he did in 2017(coming off an oddly similar season in 2016 with horrible WRs) and get him some receivers who can get open and make plays. Wentz is still a hell of a talent. He's not an Aaron Rodgers type of a talent, but he doesn't need to be. And that's okay.
However, 99% of QBs who play in the NFL, even the good ones or elite ones are not Aaron Rodgers. If you take give them inadequate coaching or weapons, they will not always look elite. Take a look at Matt Ryan before and after he played under Kyle Shanahan. The difference is significant. Before Shanahan got there, Matt Ryan was a good QB and sometimes even bordering on elite, but he never took that jump into the top 5 where many expected him to be when he came out of Boston College. Bring in Kyle Shanahan and in 2016 he has an incredible season winning the MVP with a 38-7 TD-INT ratio, throwing for almost 5,000 yards with 117.1 passer rating and coming within a hair's length of winning a Super Bowl. Granted, in 2018 without Shanahan, he had an excellent statistical season as well, but the Falcons were poor that season with a horrendous defense, and Atlanta was having to play from behind for much of the season, inflating Ryan's numbers. Regardless, Matt Ryan was the best he has ever been under his career, playing under one of the league's brightest offensive minds, and playing with a plethora of elite weapons like Julio Jones, one of the greatest WRs the NFL has ever seen. Once Kyle Shanahan left, the Falcons struggled mightily to get Julio the ball in the end zone, a feat considered unfathomable by any football fan with a brain.
Nick Foles, a guy we know very well in this city, posted a 27-2 TD-INT ratio under Chip Kelly, and led the Eagles to the playoffs with elite gamebreaking weapons like DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy. Once he got traded to the Rams, he regressed so badly under Jeff Fisher and Mike Groh that he contemplated retirement. He made his way to Kansas City under Andy Reid, and eventually back to the Eagles under the trio of Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, and John DeFilippo, and the rest is history.
Rayne Prescott struggled mightily with the Cowboys last season, until Dallas made a bold trade for WR Amari Cooper, and since then he has rebounded nicely and found himself a nice little niche actually occasionally looking like an NFL QB every once in a while, when league sources told me prior to that, the Cowboys were considering moving him to RB to back up Ezekiel Elliott, and drafting another QB in the 2019 draft.
Most QBs are not Aaron Rodgers. They can't always thrive under not-so-premium conditions. And that's okay. Carson Wentz is one of those QBs. He may not be one of the most talented QBs who has ever lived, but he is still pretty special. And simply because he can't carry a team on his back with arguably the least talented and productive group of WRs in the NFL, and a clueless coaching staff which includes Mike Groh--a man who, in part, almost forced Nick Foles into retirement, doesn't mean he can't be great when the problems are fixed around him, and you can't win Super Bowls with him. As we saw with Nick Foles, he was exactly the same way, and the city of Philadelphia won our first and only Super Bowl with him playing under optimal conditions, with the perfect blend of coaching, weapons, and elite offensive line giving him time to throw.
Does Carson have his flaws? Sure. Does he have the athleticism and physical ability to be elite if you surround him with quality coaching and pass-catching weapons? Absolutely. The Eagles can start next offseason by bringing in some fresh eyes from outside the organization, to help innovate and getting Carson to once again play to his strengths. Much like he did in 2017 with Reich and DeFilippo. And Howie Roseman needs to do his job, much like he did in 2017(coming off an oddly similar season in 2016 with horrible WRs) and get him some receivers who can get open and make plays. Wentz is still a hell of a talent. He's not an Aaron Rodgers type of a talent, but he doesn't need to be. And that's okay.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Jobs should be on the line as the Phillies fight for a playoff berth for the first time since 2011
The Phillies currently sit 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings, coming off a crushing 9-8 walk-off loss on a Brian McCann bloop single. A frustrating season to this point, which is both riddled with underachieving players and injuries. It seems everywhere you look there's something to be frustrated about.
The Phillies are undoubtedly the most talented team in the NL East. Their offense, even with the injury to Andrew McCutchen is stacked. Their bullpen when healthy is deep, and their starting rotation, which is currently the weakest aspect of the team, has pitched better than expected. The problem is that yet again, just like last season, key players are underachieving. Bryce Harper is not hitting at the level he is capable of, and even if we aren't to expect an MVP caliber season from him, his power numbers should still be significantly better. Rhys Hoskins has been inconsistent, and has cycled through 2 weeks on, 3 weeks off streaks. JT Realmuto's power numbers have not been there, leaving the ultimate pitcher's park, coming to one of the league's premier hitter's parks at Citizens Bank Park. Even one of the league's ultimate professional hitters in Jean Segura has seen his average drop to under .285.
If this continues, it would be nothing short of a monumental disappointment, and embarrassment for the entire organization, especially John Middleton, who spent hundreds of millions of dollars to improve his club this past winter. And in sports, with colossal embarrassments come colossal collateral damage.
So, if the Phillies end up missing the postseason whose job should be on the line? The entire coaching staff to start, and I'd also ponder making sweeping changes in the front office. Sound unfair? Yep. Is it mainly Kapler, the coaches and Klentak/MacPhail's fault? Nope. I'd put the blame primarily on the players for not living up to their end, and will blame John Mallee as well for alarming statistical regression among several hitters, both current and new, since his arrival in Philadelphia. However, the reality is, you can't fire the players. Their contracts are guaranteed. Someone of significance has to take the fall if the Phillies fall short of their lofty 2019 goals.
I know what you're asking: "If it isn't Kapler's fault, why should he and his staff lose their jobs?" Because that is how successful businesses and organizations are run. Not just in sports, but in life. If Apple took significant losses this calendar year, do you think some high level executive would be fired for it? Of course they would. We just accept that as a part of life. When businesses and organizations fall significantly short of expectations, someone always... always takes the fall. If the Yankees' offense suddenly goes ice cold this season for no logical reason and they collapse and miss the playoffs, and then go into next season with their offense continuing to under-perform, would Aaron Boone lose his job? There isn't even a question. I can't name many premium organizations that don't make significant changes, either to their coaching staff or front office, if they incur back-to-back disappointing seasons.
This is because successful organizations establish an expectation of excellence. Nothing less than ultimate success will suffice. The coaches know it, the executives know it, and the players know it. It's a culture that permeates through those clubhouses and locker rooms every single day. They know that jobs are always going to be on the line and everyone has to be at their best because nothing less is acceptable. And to establish this precedent, sometimes there is collateral damage. Sometimes people who aren't largely at fault need to lose their jobs. It's just the way the world works for the most successful, to keep those premium standards going.
The Phillies are in desperate need of establishing that kind of a standard. They haven't made the playoffs since 2011. We're talking about almost a decade of either horrible or mediocre baseball. Every person in that building needs to know that anything less than achieving the goals you have set for yourself is unacceptable. And I'm sure everyone knows it and wants to win, but there's a difference between knowing it and showing it. And if the players are not going to show it, then ownership has to. If you want to be one of the big clubs, you need to operate like one. They started by spending money, and now need to do their part in other baseball matters by establishing a standard and expectation of excellence that underachieving isn't going to cut it.
The Phillies are undoubtedly the most talented team in the NL East. Their offense, even with the injury to Andrew McCutchen is stacked. Their bullpen when healthy is deep, and their starting rotation, which is currently the weakest aspect of the team, has pitched better than expected. The problem is that yet again, just like last season, key players are underachieving. Bryce Harper is not hitting at the level he is capable of, and even if we aren't to expect an MVP caliber season from him, his power numbers should still be significantly better. Rhys Hoskins has been inconsistent, and has cycled through 2 weeks on, 3 weeks off streaks. JT Realmuto's power numbers have not been there, leaving the ultimate pitcher's park, coming to one of the league's premier hitter's parks at Citizens Bank Park. Even one of the league's ultimate professional hitters in Jean Segura has seen his average drop to under .285.
If this continues, it would be nothing short of a monumental disappointment, and embarrassment for the entire organization, especially John Middleton, who spent hundreds of millions of dollars to improve his club this past winter. And in sports, with colossal embarrassments come colossal collateral damage.
So, if the Phillies end up missing the postseason whose job should be on the line? The entire coaching staff to start, and I'd also ponder making sweeping changes in the front office. Sound unfair? Yep. Is it mainly Kapler, the coaches and Klentak/MacPhail's fault? Nope. I'd put the blame primarily on the players for not living up to their end, and will blame John Mallee as well for alarming statistical regression among several hitters, both current and new, since his arrival in Philadelphia. However, the reality is, you can't fire the players. Their contracts are guaranteed. Someone of significance has to take the fall if the Phillies fall short of their lofty 2019 goals.
I know what you're asking: "If it isn't Kapler's fault, why should he and his staff lose their jobs?" Because that is how successful businesses and organizations are run. Not just in sports, but in life. If Apple took significant losses this calendar year, do you think some high level executive would be fired for it? Of course they would. We just accept that as a part of life. When businesses and organizations fall significantly short of expectations, someone always... always takes the fall. If the Yankees' offense suddenly goes ice cold this season for no logical reason and they collapse and miss the playoffs, and then go into next season with their offense continuing to under-perform, would Aaron Boone lose his job? There isn't even a question. I can't name many premium organizations that don't make significant changes, either to their coaching staff or front office, if they incur back-to-back disappointing seasons.
This is because successful organizations establish an expectation of excellence. Nothing less than ultimate success will suffice. The coaches know it, the executives know it, and the players know it. It's a culture that permeates through those clubhouses and locker rooms every single day. They know that jobs are always going to be on the line and everyone has to be at their best because nothing less is acceptable. And to establish this precedent, sometimes there is collateral damage. Sometimes people who aren't largely at fault need to lose their jobs. It's just the way the world works for the most successful, to keep those premium standards going.
The Phillies are in desperate need of establishing that kind of a standard. They haven't made the playoffs since 2011. We're talking about almost a decade of either horrible or mediocre baseball. Every person in that building needs to know that anything less than achieving the goals you have set for yourself is unacceptable. And I'm sure everyone knows it and wants to win, but there's a difference between knowing it and showing it. And if the players are not going to show it, then ownership has to. If you want to be one of the big clubs, you need to operate like one. They started by spending money, and now need to do their part in other baseball matters by establishing a standard and expectation of excellence that underachieving isn't going to cut it.
Sunday, May 12, 2019
Sixers offseason plans and their future
As the Sixers' season prematurely concludes, there are obviously a lot of questions on the table. They have a head coach people have speculated to be on the hot seat, potentially coaching for his job, and two major upcomingm free agents in Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris.
The Sixers front office is indeed highly disappointed going out in the 2nd round of the playoffs, but a source tells me at this current point in time, they have no plans to make a change at head coach. They like the rapport he has developed with the players and think another year under his system and an improved bench should be enough to make a deeper playoff run going forward.
Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are both virtual locks to be back, as there is already an understanding between the parties that this is going to be a long-term commitment, and neither are expected to make any free agent visits outside of Philadelphia, according to a source. Both are going to sign max long-term contracts with the Sixers. Though the source does say the Sixers are "lying in the weeds" on Kawhi Leonard for this upcoming summer, as they've long coveted the soon-to-be free agent.
The Sixers plan to look for perimeter defensive help and more outside shooter for the bench this summer, as well as improved center depth behind Joel Embiid, as his injury and illness history is well known at this point.
Ben Simmons is still highly-regarded inside the organization, however, a source says if a team calls the Sixers with a "Godfather offer" for the former Rookie of the Year, they will listen.
It is expected to be a highly entertaining and busy summer for the Sixers as they look to make the necessary improvements to get to the next level in their playoff success, and could arguably be the most important summer in the last 30 years. All of that starts right now, and hopefully some big-time luck in the lottery.
The Sixers front office is indeed highly disappointed going out in the 2nd round of the playoffs, but a source tells me at this current point in time, they have no plans to make a change at head coach. They like the rapport he has developed with the players and think another year under his system and an improved bench should be enough to make a deeper playoff run going forward.
Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris are both virtual locks to be back, as there is already an understanding between the parties that this is going to be a long-term commitment, and neither are expected to make any free agent visits outside of Philadelphia, according to a source. Both are going to sign max long-term contracts with the Sixers. Though the source does say the Sixers are "lying in the weeds" on Kawhi Leonard for this upcoming summer, as they've long coveted the soon-to-be free agent.
The Sixers plan to look for perimeter defensive help and more outside shooter for the bench this summer, as well as improved center depth behind Joel Embiid, as his injury and illness history is well known at this point.
Ben Simmons is still highly-regarded inside the organization, however, a source says if a team calls the Sixers with a "Godfather offer" for the former Rookie of the Year, they will listen.
It is expected to be a highly entertaining and busy summer for the Sixers as they look to make the necessary improvements to get to the next level in their playoff success, and could arguably be the most important summer in the last 30 years. All of that starts right now, and hopefully some big-time luck in the lottery.
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