Friday, July 21, 2017

Position-by-position breakdown of the Eagles roster and overall thoughts

I've noticed a lot of cynicism with Eagles fans and media for this upcoming Eagles season. I really don't get where it's coming from, as they've had one of the strongest offseasons in all of the NFL, and they are coming off a very promising season where headed into last season many people projected them to win 4 or 5 games.

I don't see a lot of weaknesses on the roster. In fact, if you use the term weakness literally, I only see one, and that is the CB position. They are really solid or better than that at every other position. My biggest question mark on the team actually isn't a position. It's the overall coaching staff. I thought after a strong start, Doug Pederson regressed as the games became more important and defensive coordinators had a book on him. Granted, he didn't have a ton of help with Lane Johnson's suspension, a rookie QB, the worst group of WRs in NFL history, and a running game that dealt with injuries. Still, he made some asinine decisions talent aside, and cost the Eagles at least 2 or 3 games almost single-handedly. Jim Schwartz on the other side of the ball was disappointing with all the hype and expectations that came with his hiring. Like the offense, the defense started off strong, especially the pass rush, and got to the QB consistently through the first 8 games of the season. In the second half of the season, the pass rush disappeared and the weak CB play was exposed even more. He showed a tendency to be stuck in his ways, a lack of motivation to adapt his game plan to each individual opponent. To put it lightly, I was not impressed and he has a lot to prove.

However, I am quite optimistic about the actual players and roster of the Eagles headed into next season, so here is my position-by-position breakdown of the roster and how I think they stack up with the rest of the NFC East. This is for next season alone, I'm not projecting farther into the future for this specific breakdown.

QB: I am a huge fan of Carson Wentz. I think he is going to be one of the 7 best QBs in the NFL for a decade. Right now I'd rank him 2nd in the NFC East behind Kirk(Kurt) Cousins for next season. Long-term I like Wentz as the best QB in this division, but Cousins has progressed enough to think he's more polished next season. I've never been an Eli Manning fan, and he has been less than impressive the last couple seasons as he winds down to the end of his caeer and Dallas still has no QB on their roster. Just that guy Jack or Zack or whatever his name is. He's not an NFL player and will be out of the league in 3 years. The Prophet has spoken. Foles is an excellent backup, and McGloin is... whatever. This is a strong unit for the Eagles with quality depth and potential for greatness.

RB : Not the Eagles' strongest unit, but decent enough. They lack that superstar gamebreaker, but they have experienced veterans with complimentary skill sets. I'm a firm believer that your running game in the NFL is 70% offensive line and 30% your actual RB. A great run blocking line can make almost any RB look competent, as long as the RB isn't putrid. The Eagles should have a quality enough running game to do whatever they want to do. I'll put it 2nd in the NFC East behind Dallas. The Giants' running game has sucked for years, and the Redskins are in kind of a similar place to the Eagles with less experience in the position.

WR: By far the most improved unit on the roster. They added what I consider a true #1 top 12 WR in the league with Alshon Jeffery and a deep threat in Torrey Smith coming off of a horrible year. The good news for projecting Torrey is that he didn't show a lack of explosiveness, so I highly doubt his struggles were ability-driven. It was likely him being in a bad situation, and is a great candidate for a bounce back year. Jordan Matthews being your #3 and slot guy is an excellent role for him. His biggest knock is that he wasn't a #1 guy, but as your #3 he's tremendous. Agholor is who he is until proven otherwise, but I like Mack Hollins. He has a chance to be at least a situational deep threat this upcoming season at a minimum and perhaps more. Shelton Gibson has talent as well, but there are roster number questions as to if he'll make the team. This is a really good unit with potential to be one of the team's biggest strengths. As a unit I rank them 2nd in the NFC East behind the Giants, who easily have the best WRs in the division. I put them ahead of Dallas because while I'll rank Dez Bryant slightly ahead of Alshon Jeffery, the Eagles have more and better depth at the position. The Redskins basically had a complete upheaval of their entire WR corps, and they have made a solid addition in Pryor(who isn't as good as Jeffery) and Doctson is a TBD. Crowder had a very good year, but he's not a focal point, and they will miss DeSean Jackson's ability to stretch a defense.

TE: I like this position for the Eagles more than a lot of other people. Zach Ertz is a top 12 TE in the NFL, and will continue to get better as the Eagles get continuity at the QB position. Ertz had a new QB throwing him the ball for 3 straight seasons, which explains his slow starts. He's productive, knows how to get open, and can get behind a defense. Celek and Burton provide solid depth. The Eagles are strong here, I'd rank them 2nd in the division behind the Redskins. Jordan Reed is easily the best TE in the division right now. I'd project Ertz to be better than an aging Witten for next season, and the Giants have a real weakness at that spot until Engram can prove his worth in the NFL.

OL: Arguably the best position on the team. This offensive line is one of the 5 best in football. It has depth, it has some of the best tackles in the sport, and Brandon Brooks was a quality addition last year. They should provide plenty of time for Wentz to throw the ball, and open up running lanes for their backs. I'll have to put them 2nd in the NFC East though, because Dallas currently has the best line in the game, and the Redskins isn't too shabby either. I think they are very close to the Eagles and could be a coin flip there. I give the Eagles the slight edge, because I think the depth is better. The Giants have a horrible offensive line, which will be the downfall of their team this upcoming season.

DL: The second best unit on the team behind the offensive line. If the Eagles are great anywhere, it's on the lines, which is why I'm very optimistic about the team this season. They upgraded and got younger by adding Tim Jernigan in the offseason to provide a great interior pass rushing tandem with Fletcher Cox. Jernigan is also pretty stout in run defense as well. Adding depth at DE with Derek Barnett and Chris Long will only improve the pass rush of last season, which started off great and wore down. This is easily the best defensive line in the NFC East. I'll put the Giants 2nd behind them, the Redskins 3rd, and Dallas 4th. Dallas' defensive line is their weakest position.

LB: Another underrated unit by many. Jordan Hicks is as good of a 4-3 LB you'll find in the NFL, and Nigel Bradham had a very strong first year with the Eagles. Kendricks has been disappointing, but he's not what I'd call a bad player, he's just inconsistent. It's not elite in terms of the NFL, but it's easily the best LB corps in the NFC East. This division is really lacking at this position. I guess I'd put the Redskins 2nd with Dallas and the Giants fighting over who wants to be dead last.

CB: Easily the weakest area of the team, and quite possibly the weakest in the NFL. This will be a major issue for the Eagles going forward unless rookie Douglas plays much better than expected out of the gate. The Eagles are lucky their defensive line is loaded, it may be the only thing preventing this area from being a disaster. I am high on Jalen Mills though. I think he has that competitive fire I like in defensive players. I expect him to improve. Patrick Robinson is as mediocre as they come. The Giants easily have the best CBs in the NFC East, and the other 3 teams aren't exactly strong at the position. The Cowboys totally revamped almost their entire secondary, so if their young guys disappoint, they could actually be worse than the Eagles. The Giants are the best, with the Redskins second, and the Cowboys are one Scandrick down year from being worse than the Eagles.

Safety: Yet another underrated group. Jenkins is coming off a down year, but mainly because he was asked to play slot corner after Ron Brooks went down with a knee injury. When he plays safety, he's excellent, and Rodney McLeod is unheralded, but is a rock solid player. He doesn't wow you, but he covers, he hits, he can play in run support. I like him. The Eagles have the best safety tandem in the NFC East even with Landon Collins having a great sophmore season for the Giants. The Cowboys will be 3rd with Byron Jones being pretty talented and the Redskins dead last with almost nothing at the position.

Special Teams: The Eagles have far and away the best special teams in the NFC East and quite possibly the NFL. If there is any area Chip Kelly actually did right, it was the special teams. While Sturgis isn't the caliber kicker Dan Bailey is, the Eagles excel in all their coverage and return units. The Eagles come in at #1 in the division with Dallas at #2 and the Redskins and Giants jockeying for last.

Overall, I think the outlook for the Eagles season is very positive. They only have one tremendously weak area positionally, have improved in key spots, and are great on the lines. The key to this upcoming season is Wentz. If he improves as expected, lock the Eagles in as a playoff team barring injury. If not, things could get murky, but I have no reason to believe someone as talented as Wentz, with the work ethic to match will not improve with legit weapons this time around.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

10 reasons why the Sixers should finish on the high end of the win prediction spectrum

In a time where everyone seems to be putting out their preliminary win predictions for the Sixers, I figured I'd throw my hat in the ring, but with a different twist. My current prediction is 45 wins(injuries and minutes restrictions permitting). I'm going to give my 10 reasons why I think the Sixers should finish on the higher end of the win prediction spectrum. Again, injuries permitting.

1. With Embiid on the court, the Sixers simply just win
With Embiid on the court for the Sixers this past season, the Sixers played to the level of an upper-echelon playoff team. The numbers and metrics back that up if they didn't pass your eye test in that regard. They are the highest rated defensive team in the entire NBA with Embiid on the court, and offensively are significantly better also. Assuming you get a lot more games out of Embiid, the Sixers would have pushed for a playoff spot last season and certainly will(and more) next season.

2. Two #1 overall picks added to the roster
The Sixers had a 10-5 January last season and were playing playoff caliber basketball with the likes of TJ McConnell and Nik Stauskas getting significant minutes. Nothing against them, TJ is a fan favorite, but when you add Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons to your roster, you are going to be significantly better. Sure, they'll take time to jell, but you could say the same about the Sixers last season and they got better as the season went on.

3. The JJ Redick factor(and Amir Johnson)
JJ Redick not only provides the Sixers with floor spacing as one of the most accurate 3 point shooters in NBA history(it's true), but he also provides veteran leadership a young team needs. Same goes for Amir Johnson. And their presence just makes the Sixers even deeper. Which leads to...

4. The Sixers have one of the best benches in the NBA
If there was any silver lining to the injuries this past season, it was that bench caliber players got starter's minutes, and going forward they will be much more seasoned than your typical bench players. The entire Sixers roster pretty much had plenty of playing time last season, and got them much-needed development time. This should do wonders for their contributions next season. The Sixers are loaded with quality NBA talents up and down the roster. No stiffs who don't belong will be seeing the floor next season.

5. The Okafor and Embiid experiment is dead
Last season, the Sixers fucked around with that Embiid and Okafor lineup way too many times when even your most casual fans knew it wouldn't work. Not coincidentally, literally the first game the Sixers stopped going to that lineup is when their season started to turn and they started winning. We won't see them together starting next season at all. That cost the Sixers a good 5+ wins last season, if not more, and it's gone never to return.

6. The Eastern Conference is as bad as it has ever been
With Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Paul Millsap(who?) going out West, the East gets even weaker. Half the teams in the conference are going to tank for Michael Porter Jr. or Luka Doncic, so the Sixers can beat up on a weakened and vulnerable conference.

7. Home Court Advantage is back
The Sixers sold 14,000 new season tickets, which is the most in the entire league. Home court advantage like from the early Iverson days will be back, and that place will be rocking. Expect the Sixers to be one of the better home teams next season feeding off of that crowd.

8. The Sixers have a great developmental staff
With a young team, you need the right coaching staff to bring the players along, and this staff has proven that they have what it takes to develop and get the most out of young players. Normally, I'd be pretty concerned about a potential starting lineup of two rookies(Fultz and Simmons) and Embiid who only played 31 games, but I expect this staff to have them developing quickly. We saw it last season with how quickly Joel Embiid improved his game. Things like learning how to handle double teams, passing out of the post, running off screens, defensive awareness. TLC and Dario both got noticeably better as the season went along as well, and even Nik Stauskas started to finally find a niche for himself after an extremely disappointing start to his career. This staff knows what they're doing with young guys. Hell, they must be used to it by now after the last 4 years.

9. The core puts winning above their own egos
With the talent Embiid, Fultz, and Simmons have, you'd almost expect them to be a little selfish and want to be "the guy" to represent this franchise going forward. I don't see that being the case. From what I've read and seen, these guys just want to win. They are willing to make the necessary sacrifices for the overall good of the team, and they are willing to put in the extra work on the practice court to improve their overall games. No big heads here. Just great talents with the work ethic and character to back it up.

10. The national media thinks they are a borderline playoff team
The national media has been wrong about every single Sixers-related 'Process' thing since Sam Hinkie was first hired. From "tanking guarantees nothing" to "The Sixers will never have anyone desire to play there bc LOSING CULTURE!" Now you see almost half the league following suit of what Hinkie did, and the national media not uttering a peep about it. So if they expect the Sixers to "fight to barely squeak into the playoffs" expect them to be wrong like they have been since day one and the Sixers to be much better than everyone thought.